Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Seattle Sounders, 29% draw, 31% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 5NouhouD
- 37S. BrunellM
- 16A. RoldanM
- 90S. GomezM
- 11A. RusnakM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 9D. JoveljicF
- 24S. FreiG
- 35A. LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 13J. MorrisF
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 5S. RogersD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 6A. SaletrosM
- 42D. D'AvillaM
- 17R. LodM
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 44J. CohenG
- 16J. WatermanD
- 22M. PinedaD
- 2L. BarrosoD
- 14V. RadojevicD
- 47S. WilliamsM
- 35S. OregelM
- 19J. BambaF
- 12P. DithejaneF
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
Chicago Fire
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
- 30 June 2024Seattle Sounders 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2022Chicago Fire 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2020Chicago Fire 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2020Seattle Sounders 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2019Chicago Fire 2–4 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 24 June 2018Seattle Sounders 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.