Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 51% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 23% draw, 26% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.00, Erzurumspor FK 1.40.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK
- 12 February 2025Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 15 September 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 21 April 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 December 2023Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 7 May 2023Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 11 December 2022Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gençlerbirliği S.K. carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.66 for Erzurumspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.40 for Erzurumspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.97 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Erzurumspor FK rate 0.73 and 1.09.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.4 for Erzurumspor FK. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.09 for Erzurumspor FK.