28 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Cremonese vs Modena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Cremonese 0-3 Modena.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Cremonese, 22% draw, 13% Modena — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cremonese at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cremonese0%Draw1%Modena99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Simone Pontisso
18'
24'
Giacomo Olzer
Fabio Gerli
30'
31'
⚽G. Olzerassist: G. Brugman
45'
⚽G. Olzerassist: G. Ambrosino
🔁G. Pezzellaout: D. Lordkipanidze
46'
🔁F. Bonazzoliout: M. Nasti
46'
55'
⚽G. Casoassist: G. Ambrosino
59'
🔁G. Olzerout: P. Azzi
59'
🔁G. Casoout: A. Imputato
🔁A. Vogliaccoout: F. Folino
64'
🔁F. Gerliout: S. Lottici Tessadri
64'
🔁S. Pontissoout: T. Berti
71'
78'
🔁G. Brugmanout: W. Acquah
87'
🔁F. Zampanoout: K. Bozhanaj
87'
🔁G. Ambrosinoout: D. Montevago

Match stats — Cremonese vs Modena

50%Possession50%
8Shots10
2On target3
8Corners2
0.39xG0.68

Goals against chances

Cremonese0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Modena3 from 0.68 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cremonese 3-5-2
  • 22F. Agazzi
  • 38A. VogliaccoD
  • 15M. BianchettiD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 17A. LickunasM
  • 16F. GerliM
  • 20S. PontissoM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 3G. PezzellaM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
  • 9M. De LucaF
Substitutes
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 59R. LiberaliG
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 21Y. RocchettiD
  • 35E. CabiancaD
  • 13Fellipe JackD
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
  • 8S. Lottici TessadriM
Coach: Marco Giampaolo
Modena 4-3-3
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 72G. OlzerF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
  • 10G. CasoF
Substitutes
  • 12A. MaranG
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 28D. AdorniD
  • 15M. OderoD
  • 27P. AzziM
  • 2G. BeyukuD
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 32W. AcquahM
Coach: Daniele Galloppa

Form going into Cremonese vs Modena

Cremonese

  • L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026

Modena

  • W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cremonese512257-25
4Modena531184+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Modena

  • 26 January 2025Cremonese 2–2 ModenaSerie B
  • 29 October 2024Modena 2–2 CremoneseSerie B
  • 3 March 2024Modena 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 23 December 2023Cremonese 4–0 ModenaSerie B
  • 20 October 2022Cremonese 4–2 ModenaCoppa Italia

Leading scorers: Cremonese and Modena

Cremonese

  • F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assist

Modena

  • G. Ambrosino2 goals2 assists
  • G. Caso2 goals
  • G. Olzer2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.