Cremonese
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction
The model makes it 42% Cremonese, 29% draw, 29% Modena — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cremonese 1.28, Modena 1.02.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Modena
- 26 January 2025Cremonese 2–2 ModenaSerie B
- 29 October 2024Modena 2–2 CremoneseSerie B
- 3 March 2024Modena 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 23 December 2023Cremonese 4–0 ModenaSerie B
- 20 October 2022Cremonese 4–2 ModenaCoppa Italia
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cremonese carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.83 for Modena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Cremonese and 1.02 for Modena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cremonese rate 0.72 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Modena rate 0.89 and 0.94.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cremonese against 1.02 for Modena. Cremonese's attack/defence rating is 0.72/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.94 for Modena.