9 October 2026, 19:15 UTC

SC Braga vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result

Braga
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Full time1 – 3

Final score: SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CP.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% SC Braga, 26% draw, 42% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Braga0%Draw1%Sporting CP99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rui Silva (OG)
41'
58'
🔁Georgios Vagiannidisout: Maximiliano Araujo
58'
🔁Silas Andersenout: Rodrigo Zalazar
59'
🔁Fotis Ioannidisout: Luis Suárez
66'
⚽Luis Suárezassist: Nestory Irankunda
🔁Denis Huseinbasicout: Mario Dorgeles
66'
🔁Gabriel Silvaout: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera
67'
71'
⚽Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (OG)
🔁João Moutinhoout: Tommy Marqués
74'
🔁Pau Victorout: Jonas Wind
74'
79'
🔁Nestory Irankundaout: Flávio Gonçalves
82'
⚽Rodrigo Zalazarassist: Geny Catamo
🔁Adrian Bajramiout: Fra Navarro
84'
84'
🔁Rodrigo Zalazarout: João Simões
Sergio Barcia
89'
89'
Flávio Gonçalves

Match stats — SC Braga vs Sporting CP

49%Possession51%
15Shots9
4On target3
5Corners2
1.54xG0.97

Goals against chances

SC Braga1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Sporting CP3 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Braga 3-4-2-1
  • 31Bernardo FontesG
  • 22Sergio BarciaD
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoD
  • 44A. BajramiD
  • 2Víctor GómezM
  • 29J. GorbyM
  • 8João MoutinhoM
  • 11Gabriel SilvaM
  • 23D. HuseinbašićM
  • 21Ricardo HortaM
  • 10Pau VictorF
Substitutes
  • 26B. Arrey-MbiD
  • 78João CarvalhoG
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 16Tomás MarquésM
  • 7Diogo TravassosD
  • 77Gabri MartínezF
  • 17J. MiloševićF
  • 9Fran NavarroF
  • 19J. WindF
Coach: Carlos Vicens
Sporting CP 4-3-3
  • 1Rui SilvaG
  • 22Iván FresnedaD
  • 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
  • 25Gonçalo InácioD
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 5Sergi AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10Geny CatamoF
  • 7F. IoannidisF
  • 19N. IrankundaF
Substitutes
  • 8João SimõesM
  • 28J. DerryF
  • 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
  • 20M. AraújoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 58Flávio GonçalvesF
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
  • 55Ibrahima BaD
  • 21Pedro LimaM
Coach: Rui Borges

Form going into SC Braga vs Sporting CP

SC Braga

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
  • W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
  • W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026

Sporting CP

Primeira Liga

  • D2-2Arouca19 September 2026

What these results say

  • SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8SC Braga115241311+217
3Sporting CP117312411+1324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Sporting CP

  • 7 March 2026SC Braga 2–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 5 October 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 7 April 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 10 November 2024SC Braga 2–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 11 February 2024Sporting CP 5–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga

The full SC Braga vs Sporting CP record →

Leading scorers: SC Braga and Sporting CP

SC Braga

GoalsAssists

  • Pau Victor51

Sporting CP

GoalsAssists

  • L. Suárez91
  • Flávio Gonçalves31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP won 3–1 at SC Braga. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rui Silva (own goal) 41' for SC Braga, Luis Suárez 66' for Sporting CP, Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (own goal) 71' for Sporting CP, Rodrigo Zalazar 82' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SC Braga a 50.4% chance to finish in the top four: 56.3% after a win, 50.8% after a draw, 45.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.3%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Sporting CP the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 13.2% going in: 15.9% after a win, 11.6% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SC Braga v Sporting CP has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. SC Braga win32%=
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Sporting CP win42%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.