SC Braga
vs
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: SC Braga 1–2 Sporting CP
The model makes it 32% SC Braga, 28% draw, 40% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.43, Sporting CP 1.70.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SC Braga vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 40% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Braga vs Sporting CP
SC Braga
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
Sporting CP
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Sporting CP
- 7 March 2026SC Braga 2–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 7 April 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024SC Braga 2–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 11 February 2024Sporting CP 5–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 23 January 2024SC Braga 1–0 Sporting CPTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Sporting CP
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assists
Sporting CP
- L. Suárez6 goals1 assists
- Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
- F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.99 against 7.18 for Sporting CP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for SC Braga and 1.70 for Sporting CP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 1.12 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP rate 1.59 and 0.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SC Braga a 0.5% chance of the title and Sporting CP 6.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SC Braga against 1.7 for Sporting CP. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 1.12/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/0.84 for Sporting CP.