Moreirense
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente
The model makes it 33% Moreirense, 31% draw, 36% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.15, GIL Vicente 1.24.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Moreirense and GIL Vicente are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GIL Vicente at 36% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Moreirense
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
GIL Vicente
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
- W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
What these results say
- Moreirense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
- 25 July 2026GIL Vicente 2–2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
- 7 February 2026Moreirense 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 29 August 2025GIL Vicente 2–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025GIL Vicente 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 12 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–0 MoreirenseTaça de Portugal
- 8 November 2024Moreirense 3–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Moreirense and GIL Vicente
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
GIL Vicente
- Héctor Hernández3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Moreirense carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.73 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Moreirense and 1.24 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Moreirense rate 0.76 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 0.78 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Moreirense against 1.24 for GIL Vicente. Moreirense's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1 for GIL Vicente.