9 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Referee: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Moreirense, 30% draw, 36% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GIL Vicente at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Moreirense3%Draw93%GIL Vicente4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Ricardo Esgaio
56'
Andreas Lausen
Manuel Mendonça
60'
64'
🔁Andreas Lausenout: Mohamed Kaba
🔁Nile Johnout: Rodrigo Alonso
66'
🔁Kiko Bondosoout: João Veloso
66'
70'
Gil Pinto Martins
71'
Mohamed Kaba
72'
🔁Gil Pinto Martinsout: Joelson Fernandes
72'
🔁Hector Hernandezout: Guilherme Gomes
Gilberto Batista
75'
🔁Manuel Mendonçaout: Landerson Costa Araújo
77'
83'
🔁Murilo Souzaout: Walace França
83'
🔁Santiago García Gonzálezout: Tidjany Chabrol Toure
🔁Leonardo Vonićout: Yan Maranhão
86'
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
88'
90'
⚽Walace França (pen)

Match stats — Moreirense vs GIL Vicente

38%Possession62%
12Shots13
2On target3
4Corners3
1.14xG1.51

Goals against chances

Moreirense0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth
GIL Vicente1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13André FerreiraG
  • 76Dinis PintoD
  • 66Gilberto BatistaD
  • 26MaracásD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme LiberatoM
  • 10Kiko BondosoM
  • 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
  • 19Tiago AndradeM
  • 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
  • 12Francisco Barbosa SampaioG
  • 11LandersonF
  • 99MaranhãoF
  • 1AranhaG
  • 20João VelosoM
  • 17Álvaro MartínezD
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 28Chipyoka SongaF
  • 8M. StjepanovićM
Coach: Vasco Costa
GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucãoG
  • 47Ricardo EsgaioD
  • 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
  • 39Jonathan BuatuD
  • 45David MoreiraD
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
  • 77MuriloM
  • 10Santi GarcíaM
  • 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
  • 23Héctor HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 3EspigaresD
  • 11Joelson FernandesF
  • 32M. FernándezM
  • 19GuilhermeM
  • 99M. KabaF
  • 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
  • 27A. MoreiraF
  • 94SamuelG
  • 2José SilvaD
Coach: Luís Pinto

Form going into Moreirense vs GIL Vicente

Moreirense

Primeira Liga

  • D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026

GIL Vicente

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
  • L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
  • W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026

What these results say

  • GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Moreirense114251318-514
7GIL Vicente11533108+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente

  • 25 July 2026GIL Vicente 2–2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 February 2026Moreirense 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 29 August 2025GIL Vicente 2–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 6 April 2025GIL Vicente 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 12 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–0 MoreirenseTaça de Portugal

The full Moreirense vs GIL Vicente record →

Leading scorers: Moreirense and GIL Vicente

Moreirense

GoalsAssists

  • N. John30

GIL Vicente

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

GIL Vicente won 1–0 at Moreirense. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for GIL Vicente at 36%. The goal: Walace França (penalty) 90' for GIL Vicente. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Moreirense a 15.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.6% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For GIL Vicente the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.0% going in: 2.8% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.8%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.