10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Academico Viseu vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result

Viseu
Referee: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Academico Viseu 2-1 Estoril.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Academico Viseu, 27% draw, 22% Estoril — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Academico Viseu at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Academico Viseu97%Draw3%Estoril0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Jordan Holsgrove
⚽Cihan Kahramanassist: Anthony Correia
29'
Cihan Kahraman
31'
45'
🔁Milan Robinout: Nail Omerovic
56'
⚽Rafik Guitaneassist: João Carvalho
Soufiane Messeguem
60'
🔁Lorougnon Gohiout: Nils Mortimer
67'
🔁Cihan Kahramanout: Alejandro Mestanza
67'
Anthony Correia
73'
74'
🔁Ricard Sanchez Sendraout: Pedro Carvalho
74'
🔁Roko Jurišićout: Tiago Parente
🔁João Guilhermeout: Alvaro Zamora
83'
⚽Soufiane Messeguemassist: Alejandro Mestanza
88'
89'
🔁Xavier Sintes Egeaout: André Tiago Ramos das Neves
🔁Soufiane Messeguemout: Cristian Ferreira
90+4'
🔁André Clóvisout: Paulo Rafael Pereira Araujo
90+4'

Match stats — Academico Viseu vs Estoril

51%Possession49%
15Shots15
6On target9
3Corners5
0.81xG1.42

Goals against chances

Academico Viseu2 from 0.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Estoril1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75RobinhoD
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 3Miguel BrauD
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 7Luís SilvaM
  • 31João GuilhermeM
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 47L. GohiM
  • 33André ClóvisF
Substitutes
  • 18C. FerreiraM
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
  • 9M. BouldiniF
  • 21Tomás DomingosD
  • 6André CeitilM
  • 10Á. ZamoraF
  • 77PaulinhoF
  • 22Nils MortimerF
  • 1Marcos LavínG
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro
Estoril 3-4-2-1
  • 1Joel RoblesG
  • 35S. AmissahD
  • 6Xavi SintesD
  • 5A. TsounguiD
  • 2Ricard SánchezM
  • 44M. RobinM
  • 10J. HolsgroveM
  • 21R. JurišićM
  • 99R. GuitaneM
  • 12João CarvalhoM
  • 7André LacximicantF
Substitutes
  • 11N. OmerovićF
  • 16M. TurkG
  • 43fletcher loweG
  • 42J. ArnolinD
  • 22Pedro CarvalhoD
  • 4FerroD
  • 17PeixinhoF
  • 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
  • 3Fernando MedranoD
Coach: Vasco Matos

Form going into Academico Viseu vs Estoril

Academico Viseu

Primeira Liga

  • W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026

Estoril

Primeira Liga

  • L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Academico Viseu116231513+220
18Estoril10028519-142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Estoril

  • 1 December 2022Academico Viseu 3–2 EstorilTaça da Liga
  • 16 February 2021Estoril 3–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
  • 24 September 2020Academico Viseu 0–2 EstorilSegunda Liga
  • 3 November 2019Estoril 3–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga

The full Academico Viseu vs Estoril record →

Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Estoril

Academico Viseu

GoalsAssists

  • André Clóvis51
  • S. Messeguem31
  • João Guilherme30

Estoril

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Academico Viseu beat Estoril 2–1. The model had made a win for Academico Viseu its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Cihan Kahraman 29' for Academico Viseu, Rafik Guitane 56' for Estoril, Soufiane Messeguem 88' for Academico Viseu. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Academico Viseu a 12.8% chance to finish in the top four: 14.9% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.9%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Estoril the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.8% going in: 36.8% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.5%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Academico Viseu v Estoril has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Academico Viseu's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Academico Viseu win51%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Estoril win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.