Academico Viseu
vs
Estoril
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Academico Viseu 1–0 Estoril
The model makes it 46% Academico Viseu, 29% draw, 25% Estoril — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.68, Estoril 0.94.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Academico Viseu vs Estoril
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academico Viseu at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Academico Viseu vs Estoril
Academico Viseu
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Maritimo22 August 2026
Estoril
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
What these results say
- Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estoril did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estoril conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Estoril
- 1 December 2022Academico Viseu 3–2 EstorilTaça da Liga
- 16 February 2021Estoril 3–0 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 24 September 2020Academico Viseu 0–2 EstorilSegunda Liga
- 3 November 2019Estoril 3–1 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
- 5 May 2019Estoril 1–3 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Estoril
Academico Viseu
- André Clóvis4 goals
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Academico Viseu carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.6 for Estoril. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Academico Viseu and 0.94 for Estoril. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Academico Viseu rate 0.91 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estoril rate 0.74 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Academico Viseu a 0.2% chance of the title and Estoril 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academico Viseu the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Academico Viseu against 0.94 for Estoril. Academico Viseu's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.22 for Estoril.