Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Eintracht Braunschweig, 27% draw, 33% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Eintracht Braunschweig at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. HoffmannG
- 8M. AydınD
- 21K. EhlersD
- 23I. KoutsidisD
- 22F. Di Michele SanchezD
- 6F. FlickM
- 15Max MarieM
- 17A. OpokuM
- 10S. Di BenedettoM
- 7Yann SturmM
- 27Jan UrbichF
- 25S. BaD
- 29L. FrenkertD
- 30R. HeußerM
- 19Junior Arlet ZéM
- 43D. KovacevicD
- 11J. MijatovićF
- 24S. SanéF
- 26T. WagnerM
- 32B. UphoffG
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekićD
- 5N. MadsenD
- 47J. TolkinD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 20A. KaprálikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 27I. UgohM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
- 11G. de RegtF
- 17F. AlidouF
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 22M. ReimersM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 4S. SchonlauD
- 3Niko Takahashi CendagortaD
- 43T. WieseM
- 9G. KvilitaiaF
Form going into Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern19 September 2026
- D2-2Dynamo Dresden12 September 2026
- L1-3away to VfL Osnabrück6 September 2026
- L3-5Hertha BSC28 August 2026
- L0-1VfL Bochum14 August 2026
Holstein Kiel
All competitions we cover
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Magdeburg30 August 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
What these results say
- Eintracht Braunschweig did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Eintracht Braunschweig conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
- 2 May 2026Holstein Kiel 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 2025Eintracht Braunschweig 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 19 July 2025Eintracht Braunschweig 1–4 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 20 March 2025Holstein Kiel 2–2 Eintracht BraunschweigFriendlies Clubs
- 19 January 2024Holstein Kiel 1–2 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga
- 30 July 2023Eintracht Braunschweig 0–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
GoalsAssists
- Jan Urbich41
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1–0. The model had made a win for Eintracht Braunschweig its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Jan Urbich 11' for Eintracht Braunschweig. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eintracht Braunschweig a 35.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.6% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 41.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.6%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.
For Holstein Kiel the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 32.7% going in: 25.1% after a win, 32.1% after a draw, 38.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.2%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Eintracht Braunschweig v Holstein Kiel has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Eintracht Braunschweig's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Eintracht Braunschweig win40%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Holstein Kiel win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.