SC Braga
vs
Austria Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 71% SC Braga, 20% draw, 9% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 1.41, 5.00 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: SC Braga 2.00, Austria Vienna 0.56.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SC Braga
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Austria Vienna
- L0-2Lask Linz9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
SC Braga
- Pau Victor1 goals
Austria Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.18 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SC Braga D; Austria Vienna L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for SC Braga and 0.56 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 0.64 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.42 and 1.65.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (15%), 3-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.56 for Austria Vienna. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 0.64/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.65 for Austria Vienna.