Atalanta
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 91% Atalanta, 6% draw, 3% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 1.10, 16.67 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 3.92, Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.66.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
A clear gap in the ratings
Atalanta carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.21 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hapoel Tel Aviv W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.92 goals for Atalanta and 0.66 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.08 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.53 and 1.92.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 4-0 (10%), 5-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 320 correct results out of 666 settled predictions (48%), with 64 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 91%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.92 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.66 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.92 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.