Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rayo Vallecano, 22% draw, 37% Alaves — fair odds of 2.44, 4.55 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rayo Vallecano at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. BatallaG
- 2A. RatiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 22P. FernandezD
- 33J. VertrouwdD
- 6P. CissM
- 19J. de FrutosM
- 7I. PalazonM
- 8U. LopezM
- 21F. PerezM
- 10S. CamelloF
- 1D. CardenasG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 26M. de las SiasD
- 27S. Lozano
- 18A. GarciaM
- 4P. DiazM
- 23O. ValentinM
- 11R. NtekaM
- 34I. Alonso MartinD
- 1A. SiveraG
- 7A. PerezD
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17Jonny OttoD
- 21A. RebbachD
- 19P. IbanezM
- 8A. BlancoM
- 18M. Rodriguez
- 15L. BoyeF
- 11T. MartinezF
- 13A. RodriguezG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 3YusiD
- 12H. Novoa RamosF
- 4D. SuarezM
- 10C. AlenaM
- 23C. ProtesoniM
- 6A. GuevaraM
- 20A. Manas
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
- 23 May 2026Alaves 1–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 14 January 2026Alaves 2–0 Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
- 26 October 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 29 March 2025Alaves 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 26 October 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rayo Vallecano and Alaves drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rayo Vallecano at 41% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: S. Camello 48' for Rayo Vallecano, M. Diaz 84' for Alaves. On expected goals it finished 0.43–1.92.