Rayo Vallecano
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 43% Rayo Vallecano, 24% draw, 33% Alaves — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.75, Alaves 1.51.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
- 23 May 2026Alaves 1–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 14 January 2026Alaves 2–0 Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
- 26 October 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 29 March 2025Alaves 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 26 October 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 10 March 2024Alaves 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rayo Vallecano carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.93 for Alaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.51 for Alaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rayo Vallecano rate 1.09 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alaves rate 1.00 and 0.85.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rayo Vallecano the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 1.51 for Alaves. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.85 for Alaves.