Austria Vienna
vs
SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 18% Austria Vienna, 28% draw, 54% SC Braga — fair odds of 5.56, 3.57 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 0.75, SC Braga 1.48.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Vienna
- L0-2Lask Linz9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
SC Braga
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 6 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Austria Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
SC Braga
- Pau Victor1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.68 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Vienna L-L; SC Braga D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.48 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.42 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 0.64 and 0.95.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.48 for SC Braga. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/0.95 for SC Braga.