Sassuolo
vs
Juventus
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sassuolo, 29% draw, 33% Juventus — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.41, Juventus 1.25.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Juventus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sassuolo at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sassuolo vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49A. MuricG
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 21J. IdzesD
- 16F. LeysenD
- 3J. DoigD
- 18N. MaticM
- 35L. LipaniM
- 10D. BerardiM
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
- 45A. LaurienteM
- 94S. EspositoF
- 80S. TuratiG
- 22L. NyarkoG
- 15D. Caleta-CarD
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 20I. Van der BremptD
- 33R. ObradorD
- 8A. GhionM
- 17V. AdzicM
- 55I. SulemanaM
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumiD
- 2Z. CelikD
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 7F. ConceicaoM
- 31N. GonzalezM
- 17K. AlajbegovicM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 1K. GrabaraG
- 6L. KellyD
- 4F. GattiD
- 24D. RuganiD
- 43F. PagnuccoD
- 41A. OwusuM
- 29P. M. SarrM
- 27N. WoltemadeF
Form going into Sassuolo vs Juventus
Sassuolo
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026
Juventus
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sassuolo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Juventus
- 13 September 2026Sassuolo 3–2 JuventusSerie A
- 21 March 2026Juventus 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
- 6 January 2026Sassuolo 0–3 JuventusSerie A
- 16 January 2024Juventus 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 23 September 2023Sassuolo 4–2 JuventusSerie A
- 16 April 2023Sassuolo 1–0 JuventusSerie A
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Juventus
Sassuolo
- Vasilije Adžić2 goals1 assists
Juventus
- E. Zhegrova2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.41 goals for Sassuolo and 1.25 for Juventus; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: S. Esposito 65' (Sassuolo), E. Zhegrova 82' (Juventus), K. Bowie 89' (Sassuolo), E. Zhegrova 90' (Juventus), V. Adzic 90' (Sassuolo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sassuolo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sassuolo against 1.25 for Juventus. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/0.74 for Juventus.