Sassuolo vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sassuolo, 28% draw, 34% Juventus — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sassuolo at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sassuolo vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49A. MuricG
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 21J. IdzesD
- 16F. LeysenD
- 3J. DoigD
- 18N. MaticM
- 35L. LipaniM
- 10D. BerardiM
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
- 45A. LaurienteM
- 94S. EspositoF
- 80S. TuratiG
- 22L. NyarkoG
- 15D. Caleta-CarD
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 20I. Van der BremptD
- 33R. ObradorD
- 8A. GhionM
- 17V. AdzicM
- 55I. SulemanaM
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumiD
- 2Z. CelikD
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 7F. ConceicaoM
- 31N. GonzalezM
- 17K. AlajbegovicM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 1K. GrabaraG
- 6L. KellyD
- 4F. GattiD
- 24D. RuganiD
- 43F. PagnuccoD
- 41A. OwusuM
- 29P. M. SarrM
- 27N. WoltemadeF
Form going into Sassuolo vs Juventus
Sassuolo
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026
Juventus
All competitions we cover
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Juventus
- 21 March 2026Juventus 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
- 6 January 2026Sassuolo 0–3 JuventusSerie A
- 16 January 2024Juventus 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 23 September 2023Sassuolo 4–2 JuventusSerie A
- 16 April 2023Sassuolo 1–0 JuventusSerie A
The result against the call
Sassuolo beat Juventus 3–2. The model had made a win for Sassuolo its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Esposito 65' for Sassuolo, E. Zhegrova 82' for Juventus, K. Bowie 89' for Sassuolo, E. Zhegrova 90' for Juventus, V. Adzic 90' for Sassuolo. On expected goals it finished 0.88–1.00.
How the call on Sassuolo v Juventus has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Sassuolo's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Sassuolo win38%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Juventus win34%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.