Monterrey
vs
Tigres UANL
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 0-0 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Monterrey, 30% draw, 37% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Monterrey 1.21, Tigres UANL 1.34.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Monterrey vs Tigres UANL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monterrey vs Tigres UANL
Monterrey
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
Tigres UANL
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Tigres UANL
- 8 March 2026Tigres UANL 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 2 November 2025Monterrey 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Tigres UANL 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 20 October 2024Monterrey 4–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 13 May 2024Monterrey 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 10 May 2024Tigres UANL 1–2 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Tigres UANL
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
Tigres UANL
- J. Brunetta3 goals4 assists
- R. Aguirre3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Monterrey carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.67 for Tigres UANL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Monterrey and 1.34 for Tigres UANL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monterrey rate 0.67 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tigres UANL rate 0.77 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigres UANL the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Monterrey against 1.34 for Tigres UANL. Monterrey's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.11 for Tigres UANL.