Cruz Azul vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 4-3 Club America.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Cruz Azul, 25% draw, 27% Club America — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Club America
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 17A. GarciaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 6E. LiraM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 33G. PioviD
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 21G. FernandezF
- 11C. EbereF
- 29C. RotondiF
- 30R. CotaG
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 3I. ReyesD
- 29R. JuarezD
- 5K. AlvarezD
- 28E. SanchezM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 12I. ViolanteM
- 23Raphael VeigaM
- 7B. RodriguezM
- 9H. MartinF
- 1L. MalagonG
- 26C. BorjaD
- 2E. LaraD
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 217IcaroM
- 20A. H. Gutierrez TorresM
- 93Miguel BorjaF
- 10A. ZendejasF
- 22O. PereaF
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Club America
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
Club America
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC25 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club America went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 26 |
| 1 | Club America | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Club America
- 12 April 2026Club America 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 19 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 19 May 2025Club America 2–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 16 May 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Club America 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Club America
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez52
- G. Fernández51
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín83
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul beat Club America 4–3. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Lira 19' for Cruz Azul, J. Paradela 35' for Cruz Azul, J. Orozco 45' for Cruz Azul, B. Rodriguez 52' for Club America, G. Fernandez 72' for Cruz Azul, O. Perea 90' for Club America, Miguel Borja 90' for Club America. On expected goals it finished 2.17–2.01.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.