Cruz Azul
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 4-3 Club America.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Cruz Azul, 26% draw, 28% Club America — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.21, Club America 1.44.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Cruz Azul vs Club America
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Club America
Cruz Azul
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
Club America
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Club America
- 12 April 2026Club America 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 19 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 19 May 2025Club America 2–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 16 May 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Club America 0–0 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 9 April 2025Cruz Azul 2–1 Club AmericaCONCACAF Champions League
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Club America
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
- N. Ibáñez3 goals
- J. Paradela2 goals4 assists
Club America
- H. Martín3 goals1 assists
- B. Rodríguez3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruz Azul carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.53 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.44 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruz Azul rate 0.84 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 0.83 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club America, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cruz Azul a 1.9% chance of the title and Club America 15.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruz Azul the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Cruz Azul against 1.44 for Club America. Cruz Azul's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.62 for Club America.