Sassuolo
vs
AC Milan
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 0–1 AC Milan
The model makes it 28% Sassuolo, 28% draw, 44% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.10, AC Milan 1.67.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 44% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Sassuolo
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026
AC Milan
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
- AC Milan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
- 3 May 2026Sassuolo 2–0 AC MilanSerie A
- 14 December 2025AC Milan 2–2 SassuoloSerie A
- 3 December 2024AC Milan 6–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
- 14 April 2024Sassuolo 3–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 30 December 2023AC Milan 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 29 January 2023AC Milan 2–5 SassuoloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and AC Milan
Sassuolo
- Vasilije Adžić3 goals1 assists
AC Milan
- Diego Moreira3 goals
- A. Rabiot2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sassuolo carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7.11 for AC Milan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Sassuolo and 1.67 for AC Milan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sassuolo rate 1.07 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Milan rate 1.24 and 0.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Sassuolo against 1.67 for AC Milan. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/0.74 for AC Milan.