11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sassuolo vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Reggio Emilia
Referee: Francesco Fourneau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sassuolo, 27% draw, 47% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sassuolo3%Draw92%AC Milan5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
🔁Matteo Gabbiaout: Koni De Winter
🔁Fedde Leysenout: Cas Odenthal
26'
41'
Pervis Estupinan
45+3'
Koni De Winter
45'
🔁Pervis Estupinanout: Luka Modrić
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Kieron Bowie
60'
🔁Vasilije Adzicout: Kristian Thorstvedt
60'
63'
⚽Adrien Rabiotassist: Luka Modrić
⚽Cas Odenthal
68'
78'
🔁Yunus Musahout: Ardon Jashari
78'
🔁Christian Pulisicout: Alphadjo Cissè
🔁Ignace Van der Bremptout: Simone Cinquegrano
79'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Luca Lipani
79'
85'
🔁Samuel Chukwuezeout: Omari Hutchinson
87'
Gonçalo Ramos
90+1'
Strahinja Pavlovic
Kristian Thorstvedt
90+4'

Match stats — Sassuolo vs AC Milan

41%Possession59%
10Shots11
4On target6
3Corners5
1.27xG1.23

Goals against chances

Sassuolo1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Milan1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sassuolo 4-3-3
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 10D. BerardiF
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 45A. LaurientéF
Substitutes
  • 6S. WalukiewiczD
  • 7C. VolpatoM
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 55I. SulemanaM
  • 19L. SkjellerupF
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
Coach: A. Aquilani
AC Milan 4-4-1-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 22Diego MoreiraM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 73F. CamardaF
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Sassuolo

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
  • W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026

AC Milan

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
  • AC Milan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Sassuolo112271629-138
4AC Milan117312313+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs AC Milan

  • 3 May 2026Sassuolo 2–0 AC MilanSerie A
  • 14 December 2025AC Milan 2–2 SassuoloSerie A
  • 3 December 2024AC Milan 6–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
  • 14 April 2024Sassuolo 3–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 30 December 2023AC Milan 1–0 SassuoloSerie A

The full Sassuolo vs AC Milan record →

Leading scorers: Sassuolo and AC Milan

Sassuolo

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot54
  • A. Cissè50
  • Diego Moreira43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sassuolo and AC Milan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Milan at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adrien Rabiot 63' for AC Milan, Cas Odenthal 68' for Sassuolo. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.23.

How the call on Sassuolo v AC Milan has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sassuolo win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. AC Milan win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.