11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Lazio vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Guiseppe Collu
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Lazio 3-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Lazio, 26% draw, 24% Monza — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lazio at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lazio99%Draw1%Monza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nuno Tavaresassist: Tijjani Noslin
3'
13'
Andrea Carboni
⚽Gustav Isaksenassist: Tijjani Noslin
23'
35'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
36'
🔁Cyril Ngongeout: Saba Goglichidze
Danilho Doekhi
45+2'
45'
🔁Andrea Carboniout: Yvan Maye
45'
🔁Exequiel Zeballosout: Dany Mota
45'
🔁Michael Folorunshoout: Foe Ondoa
46'
⚽Saba Goglichidzeassist: Dany Mota
🔁Danilho Doekhiout: Diogo Leite
53'
Oliver Provstgaard
55'
🔁Davide Frattesiout: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
60'
🔁Oliver Provstgaardout: Josip Šutalo
60'
Diogo Leite
68'
70'
🔁Ricardo Mangasout: Adam Bakoune
🔁Nuno Tavaresout: Alfonso Pedraza
75'
🔁Tijjani Noslinout: Andrea Pinamonti
75'
79'
Ivan Juric
⚽Andrea Pinamontiassist: Alfonso Pedraza
88'

Match stats — Lazio vs Monza

66%Possession34%
17Shots14
7On target6
7Corners6
1.59xG1.91

Goals against chances

Lazio3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
Monza1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
  • 5D. DoekhiD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 17Nuno TavaresD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 11G. IsaksenF
  • 14T. NoslinF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 37J. ŠutaloD
  • 63F. SerraF
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 28A. PrzyborekM
  • 9A. PinamontiF
  • 23PedrazaD
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 2Diogo LeiteD
  • 29M. LazzariM
Coach: G. Gattuso
Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 16C. NgongeM
  • 22E. ZeballosM
  • 9Gustavo VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 5Y. MayeD
  • 47Dany MotaF
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 8M. OndoaM
Coach: I. Juric

Form going into Lazio vs Monza

Lazio

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
  • D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
  • W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026

Monza

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
  • L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lazio11920259+1629
18Monza112181725-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Monza

  • 9 February 2025Lazio 5–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 10 November 2024Monza 0–1 LazioSerie A
  • 4 May 2024Monza 2–2 LazioSerie A
  • 23 September 2023Lazio 1–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 2 April 2023Monza 0–2 LazioSerie A

The full Lazio vs Monza record →

Leading scorers: Lazio and Monza

Lazio

GoalsAssists

  • T. Noslin44
  • G. Isaksen41
  • D. Frattesi40

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lazio beat Monza 3–1. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nuno Tavares 3' for Lazio, Gustav Isaksen 23' for Lazio, Saba Goglichidze 46' for Monza, Andrea Pinamonti 88' for Lazio. Sent off: Lorenzo Lucchesi (Monza) 35'. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.91.

How the call on Lazio v Monza has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lazio win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Monza win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.