Lazio
vs
Monza
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lazio 2–1 Monza
The model makes it 46% Lazio, 28% draw, 26% Monza — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lazio 1.78, Monza 1.08.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lazio vs Monza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 46% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lazio vs Monza
Lazio
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
Monza
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Monza
- 9 February 2025Lazio 5–1 MonzaSerie A
- 10 November 2024Monza 0–1 LazioSerie A
- 4 May 2024Monza 2–2 LazioSerie A
- 23 September 2023Lazio 1–1 MonzaSerie A
- 2 April 2023Monza 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 10 November 2022Lazio 1–0 MonzaSerie A
Leading scorers: Lazio and Monza
Lazio
- D. Frattesi3 goals
Monza
- Gustavo Varela4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lazio carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.75 for Monza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Lazio and 1.08 for Monza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lazio rate 0.96 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monza rate 1.06 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lazio against 1.08 for Monza. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.34 for Monza.