Cagliari vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cagliari 1-1 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Cagliari, 30% draw, 46% Juventus — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cagliari vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 8M. AdopoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 79Y. MassolinM
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 31P. MendyF
- 39A. FaderaF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 22R. KoflerD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 29P. SarrM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 7Francisco ConceiçãoM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 31N. GonzálezM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 11E. ZhegrovaF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 4F. GattiD
- 24D. RuganiD
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 6L. KellyD
- 20A. CambiasoD
- 32J. CabalD
Form going into Cagliari vs Juventus
Cagliari
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
Juventus
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cagliari won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Juventus
- 17 January 2026Cagliari 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 29 November 2025Juventus 2–1 CagliariSerie A
- 23 February 2025Cagliari 0–1 JuventusSerie A
- 17 December 2024Juventus 4–0 CagliariCoppa Italia
- 6 October 2024Juventus 1–1 CagliariSerie A
Leading scorers: Cagliari and Juventus
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari and Juventus drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventus at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Maldini 20' for Cagliari, Randal Kolo Muani 81' for Juventus. Sent off: Luciano Spalletti (Juventus) 90+5', Fabio Pisacane (Cagliari) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 0.56–1.97.
How the call on Cagliari v Juventus has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 26% / 31% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 24% / 30% / 46%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Cagliari win24%▼ −2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Juventus win46%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.