Lecce
vs
Bologna
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lecce 0–1 Bologna
The model makes it 30% Lecce, 32% draw, 38% Bologna — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lecce 0.93, Bologna 1.16.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lecce vs Bologna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 38% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lecce vs Bologna
Lecce
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
Bologna
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
What these results say
- Lecce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bologna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bologna had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs Bologna
- 12 April 2026Bologna 2–0 LecceSerie A
- 28 September 2025Lecce 2–2 BolognaSerie A
- 9 February 2025Lecce 0–0 BolognaSerie A
- 2 November 2024Bologna 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 11 February 2024Bologna 4–0 LecceSerie A
- 3 December 2023Lecce 1–1 BolognaSerie A
Leading scorers: Lecce and Bologna
Lecce
- L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assists
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lecce carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.83 for Bologna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Lecce and 1.16 for Bologna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lecce rate 0.73 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bologna rate 0.87 and 0.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lecce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lecce against 1.16 for Bologna. Lecce's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.92 for Bologna.