11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Lecce vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Referee: Luca J. Pairetto
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lecce 1-2 Bologna.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lecce, 31% draw, 39% Bologna — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bologna at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lecce0%Draw3%Bologna97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ivan Ilić
10'
17'
⚽Riccardo Orsoliniassist: Nicolo Cambiaghi
Paco Esteban
31'
🔁Ivan Ilićout: Oumar Ngom
36'
44'
Torbjørn Heggem
Youssef Maleh
45+2'
55'
🔁Torbjørn Heggemout: Eivind Helland
🔁Paco Estebanout: Willem Geubbels
62'
62'
🔁Roberto Piccoliout: Jay Enem
🔁Santiago Pierottiout: Konan N'Dri
62'
62'
🔁Tommaso Pobegaout: Oussama El Azzouzi
⚽Amar Fatahassist: Danilo Veiga
64'
75'
⚽Jay Enemassist: Nicolo Cambiaghi
🔁Amar Fatahout: Joel Almada Monteiro
79'
🔁Youssef Malehout: Omri Gandelman
79'
81'
🔁Nicolo Cambiaghiout: Federico Bernardeschi
81'
🔁Juan Mirandaout: Rahim Alhassane
90+4'
Oussama El Azzouzi

Match stats — Lecce vs Bologna

57%Possession43%
19Shots9
5On target5
10Corners3
1.27xG1.55

Goals against chances

Lecce1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bologna2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17Danilo VeigaD
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 29L. CoulibalyM
  • 20I. IlićM
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 50S. PierottiF
  • 22Paco EstebanF
  • 7A. Ahmed FatahF
Substitutes
  • 2A. DembéléD
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 11K. N’DriF
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 99Joël MonteiroF
  • 77M. KabaM
  • 18G. JeanD
  • 1M. BleveG
  • 32A. BorbeiG
Coach: E. Di Francesco
Bologna 3-4-2-1
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 36M. DarmianD
  • 16N. CasaleD
  • 14T. HeggemD
  • 20N. ZorteaM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 33Juan MirandaM
  • 7R. OrsoliniM
  • 28N. CambiaghiM
  • 91R. PiccoliF
Substitutes
  • 41M. VitíkD
  • 23R. AlhassaneD
  • 8M. AmondarainM
  • 10F. BernardeschiF
  • 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  • 6N. MoroM
  • 18M. LibraM
  • 72U. HapponenG
  • 5E. HellandD
Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Form going into Lecce vs Bologna

Lecce

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
  • W3-2Monza13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
  • L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026

Bologna

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Torino19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
  • D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
  • L0-1Lazio24 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lecce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bologna did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Bologna had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Lecce113171222-1010
8Bologna115241614+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lecce vs Bologna

  • 12 April 2026Bologna 2–0 LecceSerie A
  • 28 September 2025Lecce 2–2 BolognaSerie A
  • 9 February 2025Lecce 0–0 BolognaSerie A
  • 2 November 2024Bologna 1–0 LecceSerie A
  • 11 February 2024Bologna 4–0 LecceSerie A

The full Lecce vs Bologna record →

The result against the call

Bologna won 2–1 at Lecce. The model had made a win for Bologna its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Riccardo Orsolini 17' for Bologna, Amar Fatah 64' for Lecce, Jay Enem 75' for Bologna. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.55.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.