Club America
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club America 2–1 Monterrey
The model makes it 51% Club America, 25% draw, 24% Monterrey — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Club America 2.27, Monterrey 1.17.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club America vs Monterrey
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 51% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club America vs Monterrey
Club America
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
Monterrey
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club America had three goals or more.
- Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Monterrey
- 3 September 2026Club America 2–2 MonterreyLeagues Cup
- 8 February 2026Club America 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 29 November 2025Club America 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 27 November 2025Monterrey 2–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Monterrey 2–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Monterrey 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and Monterrey
Club America
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
- H. Cuypers3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club America carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.55 for Monterrey. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Club America and 1.17 for Monterrey. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 0.91 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monterrey rate 0.79 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club America a 31% chance of the title and Monterrey 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Club America against 1.17 for Monterrey. Club America's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.44 for Monterrey.