Club America vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 1-1 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Club America, 22% draw, 20% Monterrey — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club America at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. MalagónG
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 14S. BuenoD
- 15S. RamosD
- 26C. BorjaD
- 28É. SánchezM
- 3I. ReyesM
- 10A. ZendejasM
- 23Raphael VeigaM
- 7B. RodríguezM
- 9H. MartínF
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 9D. RossiM
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 5F. AmbrízM
- 14É. AguirreM
- 19A. AcevesD
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 194C. ReyesM
- 21L. ReyesD
- 30J. RodríguezM
Form going into Club America vs Monterrey
Club America
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club America had three goals or more.
- Monterrey failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Monterrey
- 3 September 2026Club America 2–2 MonterreyLeagues Cup
- 8 February 2026Club America 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 29 November 2025Club America 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 27 November 2025Monterrey 2–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Monterrey 2–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and Monterrey
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club America and Monterrey drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Club America at 58% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Diego Rossi 18' for Monterrey, Santiago Bueno 45+4' for Club America. Sent off: Miguel Borja (Club America) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club America a 45.6% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 52.9% after a win, 35.7% after a draw, 26.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.7%, 9.9 points lower than before the match.
For Monterrey the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.1% going in: 3.1% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.0%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club America v Monterrey has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 22% / 20%: the biggest move is Club America's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Club America win58%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Monterrey win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.