6 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 27% draw, 35% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarpsborg 08 FF95%Draw5%Valerenga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Niyukuriassist: V. E. Halvorsen
28'
🔁M. Opokuout: S. Sorli
63'
64'
🔁G. Zahidout: P. Strand
🔁C. Niyukuriout: P. Reinhardsen
69'
69'
🔁O. T. Holmout: G. Rajkovic
69'
🔁D. Gjengaarout: O. Saeter
🔁V. E. Halvorsenout: A. Nibe
70'
80'
Magnus Westergaard
⚽S. Sorli
81'
84'
⚽P. Strand
🔁O. Skarsemout: E. Wichne
88'
88'
🔁C. Langeout: K. Tshiembe
Peter Reinhardsen
90+4'
90'
⚽G. Rajkovic

Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

41%Possession59%
19Shots10
8On target5
7Corners8
2.04xG1.22

Goals against chances

Sarpsborg 08 FF2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Valerenga2 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 87L. OyG
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 22V. E. HalvorsenM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 6A. SherM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
  • 15M. OpokuF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LarsenG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 5L. HoylandD
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 33A. NibeM
  • 18B. GueyeM
  • 10S. SorliM
  • 7Camil MmaeeM
Coach: Even Sel
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 3H. SjatilD
  • 4A. OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 2K. FinnssonD
  • 15O. T. HolmM
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 26D. GjengaarF
  • 11G. ZahidF
Substitutes
  • 13A. A. Lonning S.
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 37I. NasbergD
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 90O. SaeterF
  • 49A. JattaD
Coach: Johannes Moesgaard

Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
  • L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026

Valerenga

  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026
  • D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
  • L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarpsborg 08 FF206772326-325
11Valerenga2064103342-922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

  • 6 September 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 16 May 2026Valerenga 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 17 August 2025Valerenga 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 6 April 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 1 February 2025Valerenga 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 March 2024Valerenga 5–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D. Karlsbakk6 goals

Valerenga

  • L. Haren8 goals1 assists
  • C. Lange6 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.