6 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 27% draw, 35% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarpsborg 08 FF95%Draw5%Valerenga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Niyukuriassist: V. E. Halvorsen
28'
🔁M. Opokuout: S. Sorli
63'
64'
🔁G. Zahidout: P. Strand
🔁C. Niyukuriout: P. Reinhardsen
69'
69'
🔁O. T. Holmout: G. Rajkovic
69'
🔁D. Gjengaarout: O. Saeter
🔁V. E. Halvorsenout: A. Nibe
70'
80'
Magnus Westergaard
⚽S. Sorli
81'
84'
⚽P. Strand
🔁O. Skarsemout: E. Wichne
88'
88'
🔁C. Langeout: K. Tshiembe
Peter Reinhardsen
90+4'
90'
⚽G. Rajkovic

Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

41%Possession59%
19Shots10
8On target5
7Corners8
2.04xG1.22

Goals against chances

Sarpsborg 08 FF2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Valerenga2 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 87L. OyG
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 22V. E. HalvorsenM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 6A. SherM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
  • 15M. OpokuF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LarsenG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 5L. HoylandD
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 33A. NibeM
  • 18B. GueyeM
  • 10S. SorliM
  • 7Camil MmaeeM
Coach: Even Sel
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 3H. SjatilD
  • 4A. OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 2K. FinnssonD
  • 15O. T. HolmM
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 26D. GjengaarF
  • 11G. ZahidF
Substitutes
  • 13A. A. Lonning S.
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 37I. NasbergD
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 90O. SaeterF
  • 49A. JattaD
Coach: Johannes Moesgaard

Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

Sarpsborg 08 FF

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
  • L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
  • W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026

Valerenga

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026
  • D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
  • L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
  • L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Valerenga had three goals or more.
  • Valerenga failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2687113242-1031
8Valerenga2695124347-432

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga

  • 16 May 2026Valerenga 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 17 August 2025Valerenga 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 6 April 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 1 February 2025Valerenga 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 March 2024Valerenga 5–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga

Sarpsborg 08 FF

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Niyukuri 28' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, S. Sorli 81' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, P. Strand 84' for Valerenga, G. Rajkovic 90' for Valerenga. On expected goals it finished 2.04–1.22.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.