Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
Gwangju FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 66% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 22% draw, 12% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.86, Gwangju FC 0.64.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pohang Steelers1 August 2026
- W3-2Daejeon Citizen25 July 2026
Gwangju FC
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 24 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 23 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 49 | -37 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Gwangju FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.08 for Gwangju FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gimcheon Sangmu FC W-W-D-D-D; Gwangju FC D-L-L-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.64 for Gwangju FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.47 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gwangju FC rate 0.45 and 2.09.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 0.64 for Gwangju FC. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.09 for Gwangju FC.