Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 31% draw, 27% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC
Line-ups
- 41M. ParkG
- 11Kim Tae-HwanD
- 45Byeon Jun-SooD
- 26Lee Jung-TaekD
- 3Park Cheol-WooD
- 7Go Jae-HyeonM
- 8Kim Yi-SeokM
- 56K. LeeM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 9G. LeeF
- 5Kim Min-KyuD
- 6Lee Soo-BinM
- 14Park Se-JinM
- 17Kim Joo-ChanF
- 21Kim In-GyunF
- 42Hong Si-HooD
- 51Ahn Jun-SuG
- 53Roh Kyung-HoM
- 57Jung Jae-MinF
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 2Jang Seok-HwanD
- 17Joao PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 1Kim Kyeong-minG
- 3Lee Min-KiD
- 7E. SaitoskiM
- 11H. FridjonssonF
- 16Joung Ji-hunM
- 19Ahn Hyeok-JuF
- 24Y. Kim
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 37Ri Yong-jikM
Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC29 August 2026
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors25 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
Gwangju FC
- L2-5FC Seoul30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Gangwon FC26 August 2026
- L0-1Incheon United23 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimcheon Sangmu FC had two goals or fewer.
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 31 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.