Kristiansund BK
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 32% Kristiansund BK, 26% draw, 42% Tromso — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.27, Tromso 1.48.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kristiansund BK
- L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026
- W2-1Molde9 August 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo2 August 2026
- L1-2Start25 July 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF18 July 2026
Tromso
- L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
- W4-0Valerenga11 July 2026
- D0-0away to KFUM Oslo29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Kristiansund BK
- L. Alvheim6 goals
Tromso
- H. Larsen8 goals2 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kristiansund BK carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.57 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kristiansund BK D-L-L-W-L; Tromso D-W-W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.48 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kristiansund BK rate 0.54 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.71 and 1.24.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kristiansund BK a 0% chance of the title and Tromso 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tromso the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Kristiansund BK against 1.48 for Tromso. Kristiansund BK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.24 for Tromso.