19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Molde vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result

Aker Stadion, Molde
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Molde 1-2 Aalesund.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Molde, 27% draw, 24% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Molde at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Molde0%Draw6%Aalesund94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Mathias Christensenassist: Uba Charles Nwokoma
32'
Marius Andresen
44'
⚽Isak Gabriel Skotheim
🔁Trent Kone-Dohertyout: Caleb Sery
45'
🔁Oskar Spiten Nysaeterout: Mathias Lovik
45'
🔁Samukele Kabiniout: Mats Møller Dæhli
45'
Jalal Abdullai
47'
Sindre Tjelmeland
47'
59'
•Luca Podlech
60'
Luca Podlech
Niklas Ödegard
70'
🔁Martin Linnesout: Kristian Lonebu
71'
•Jalal Abdullai
76'
79'
🔁Marcus Reedout: Elias Heggland Myrlid
79'
🔁Isak Gabriel Skotheimout: Sander Erik Kartum
79'
🔁Aleksander Hammer Kjelsenout: Simen Vatne Haram
🔁Fredrik Kristensen Dahlout: Sander Hestetun Kilen
79'
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Emil Breivik
82'
86'
🔁Endre Osenbrochout: Tobias Leikanger
90+7'
Mathias Christensen
90+10'
Tor Erik Valderhaug Larsen

Match stats — Molde vs Aalesund

68%Possession32%
16Shots12
8On target5
10Corners6

Line-ups

Molde 4-2-3-1
  • 22A. PosiadałaG
  • 25M. LinnesD
  • 6N. ØdegårdD
  • 27F. DahlD
  • 26S. KabiniD
  • 10E. BreivikM
  • 30D. DagaM
  • 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyM
  • 23S. GranaasM
  • 21O. Spiten-NysæterM
  • 9J. AbdulaiF
Substitutes
  • 28V. BenderM
  • 17M. Møller DæhliM
  • 16S. KilenF
  • 12P. LervikG
  • 20K. LonebuF
  • 8M. LøvikD
  • 52D. SylteD
  • 11C. Zady SeryF
  • 55Ulrik Langlie SkredeD
Coach: S. Tjelmeland
Aalesund 5-3-2
  • 1Luca PodlechG
  • 7K. NessøD
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 28D. MbackeD
  • 5A. Hammer KjelsenD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 21M. ChristensenM
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 15E. OsenbrochM
  • 8I. SkotheimF
  • 27H. M. ReedF
Substitutes
  • 4S. HaramD
  • 19S. KartumM
  • 30S. K. KnutsenF
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 17E. MyrlidF
  • 16J. ØrsahlD
  • 25U. SyversenD
  • 38T. LeikangerM
  • 22E. EngqvistD
Coach: K. Rekdal

Form going into Molde vs Aalesund

Molde

Eliteserien

  • W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026

Aalesund

Eliteserien

  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Molde2413475736+2143
14Aalesund2459104053-1324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Aalesund

  • 11 July 2026Aalesund 2–2 MoldeEliteserien
  • 27 February 2026Molde 4–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2023Aalesund 3–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 3 May 2023Molde 3–0 AalesundEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Aalesund

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu122
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Aalesund

GoalsAssists

  • M. Christensen104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aalesund won 2–1 at Molde. The model had leaned towards a win for Molde at 49% and given a win for Aalesund 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mathias Christensen 7' for Aalesund, Isak Gabriel Skotheim 44' for Aalesund, Kristian Lonebu 82' for Molde.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.