Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 45% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 4.00, 3.33 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23RafaelG
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 2Rafael TolóiD
- 18WendellD
- 16Damián BobadillaM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 37ArturF
- 9Jonathan CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 54Luis OsorioD
- 11FerreirinhaF
- 17André SilvaF
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 27Victor SáF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 56Nicolas BosshardtD
- 53IsacD
- 34TetêF
- 23SantosG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
- 37Lucas EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7Steven MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8João CruzF
- 9Kevin ViverosF
- 22Carlos TeránD
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 11IsaacF
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 42Matheus SoaresG
- 6Leonardo DerikD
- 3LéoD
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 43 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
- 6 August 2025Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Sao PauloCopa Do Brasil
- 31 July 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 10 November 2024Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 4 July 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 29 October 2023Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Paranaense won 2–1 at Sao Paulo. The model had made a win for Atletico Paranaense its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Artur 19' for Sao Paulo, Leozinho 46' for Atletico Paranaense, Leozinho 51' for Atletico Paranaense. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.79.