23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 45% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 4.00, 3.33 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Paranaense at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Arthur Dias
⚽Artur
19'
🔁R. Toloiout: Luis Osorio
23'
46'
🔁Arthur Diasout: C. Teran
46'
🔁Joao Cruzout: Claudinho
46'
⚽Leozinho
51'
⚽Leozinhoassist: L. Esquivel
🔁Pablo Maiaout: Ferreira
64'
🔁Jonathan Calleriout: Andre Silva
64'
🔁D. Bobadillaout: Danielzinho
74'
🔁Lucas Ramonout: Victor Sa
75'
76'
🔁Leozinhoout: Isaac
83'
🔁Gilbertoout: Gilberto Junior

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense

70%Possession30%
18Shots11
3On target3
7Corners3
0.94xG1.79

Goals against chances

Sao Paulo1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Paranaense2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 4-3-3
  • 23RafaelG
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 2Rafael TolóiD
  • 18WendellD
  • 16Damián BobadillaM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 37ArturF
  • 9Jonathan CalleriF
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 11FerreirinhaF
  • 17André SilvaF
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 27Victor SáF
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 56Nicolas BosshardtD
  • 53IsacD
  • 34TetêF
Coach: Junior Dorival
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 23SantosG
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
  • 37Lucas EsquivelD
  • 12GilbertoM
  • 16JádsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 7Steven MendozaM
  • 21LeozinhoF
  • 8João CruzF
  • 9Kevin ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 22Carlos TeránD
  • 26ClaudinhoD
  • 11IsaacF
  • 2Gilberto JuniorD
  • 42Matheus SoaresG
  • 6Leonardo DerikD
  • 3LéoD
  • 27Juan PortillaM
  • 63Diogo RiquelmeM
Coach: Joao Correia

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Sao Paulo2696113130+133
3Atletico Paranaense2713774131+1046

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense

  • 23 July 2026Sao Paulo 1–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 6 August 2025Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Sao PauloCopa Do Brasil
  • 31 July 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
  • 10 November 2024Sao Paulo 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 4 July 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 29 October 2023Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano8 goals2 assists
  • J. Calleri7 goals1 assists

Atletico Paranaense

  • K. Viveros18 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.