Chapecoense vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 0-4 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Chapecoense, 23% draw, 53% Flamengo — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chapecoense vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30MatheusG
- 26EvertonD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 19David AntunesM
- 27CamiloM
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 11Yannick BolasieM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 97ÊnioM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 50KassioF
- 70Rubens TadeuM
- 32WellingtonG
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 6ManchaD
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 44VitãoD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 19Gonzalo PlataM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 27Bruno HenriqueM
- 9PedroF
- 99LorranM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 13DaniloD
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 42AndrewG
- 61João VictorD
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
Form going into Chapecoense vs Flamengo
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Flamengo
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 66 | -34 | 21 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
- 8 November 2021Chapecoense 2–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 11 July 2021Flamengo 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 6 October 2019Chapecoense 0–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 12 May 2019Flamengo 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 9 September 2018Flamengo 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Flamengo
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro186
- Samuel Lino119
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo won 4–0 at Chapecoense. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Pedro 26' for Flamengo, Rafael Thyere (own goal) 38' for Flamengo, Lorran 48' for Flamengo, Pedro 87' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 0.98–0.86.