Chapecoense vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 0-4 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Chapecoense, 23% draw, 53% Flamengo — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chapecoense vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30MatheusG
- 26EvertonD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 19David AntunesM
- 27CamiloM
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 11Yannick BolasieM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 97ÊnioM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 50KassioF
- 70Rubens TadeuM
- 32WellingtonG
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 6ManchaD
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 44VitãoD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 19Gonzalo PlataM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 27Bruno HenriqueM
- 9PedroF
- 99LorranM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 13DaniloD
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 42AndrewG
- 61João VictorD
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
Form going into Chapecoense vs Flamengo
Chapecoense
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Flamengo
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 22 | +31 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Flamengo
- 23 July 2026Chapecoense 0–4 FlamengoSerie A
- 8 November 2021Chapecoense 2–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 11 July 2021Flamengo 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 6 October 2019Chapecoense 0–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 12 May 2019Flamengo 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 9 September 2018Flamengo 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Flamengo
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Flamengo
- Pedro15 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.