23 July 2026, 22:30 UTC

Botafogo vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Botafogo, 28% draw, 32% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Botafogo at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Emmanuel Martínez
46'
🔁Emmanuel Martínezout: Caique Gonçalves
46'
🔁Renê Sousaout: Renato Kayzer
🔁Matheus Martinsout: Lucas Emanuel
66'
🔁Lucas Villalbaout: Danilo Santos
66'
66'
🔁Matheuzinhoout: Diego Tarzia
78'
🔁Zé Vitorout: Tomás Pochettino
🔁Vitinhoout: Mateo Ponte
79'
🔁Huguinhoout: Santiago Rodríguez
79'
🔁Arthur Cabralout: Kadir Barría
79'
87'
🔁Erickout: Mateusinho
Mateo Ponte
90+1'

Match stats — Botafogo vs Vitoria

57%Possession43%
19Shots5
6On target1
9Corners3
1.38xG0.39

Goals against chances

Botafogo0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Vitoria0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Botafogo 4-2-3-1
  • 17WarlesonG
  • 2VitinhoD
  • 34Gabriel JustinoD
  • 21MarçalD
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 75HuguinhoM
  • 6Cristian MedinaM
  • 77Lucas VillalbaM
  • 10Álvaro MontoroM
  • 11Matheus MartinsM
  • 19Arthur CabralF
Substitutes
  • 8Danilo SantosM
  • 79Lucas EmanuelF
  • 4Mateo PonteD
  • 23Santiago RodríguezM
  • 37Kadir BarríaF
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 63HerickD
  • 33Lucas MonzónD
  • 29PaulinhoD
Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Vitoria 4-1-4-1
  • 1Lucas ArcanjoG
  • 83JamersonD
  • 25CacáD
  • 36Luan CândidoD
  • 13RamonD
  • 44Gabriel BaralhasM
  • 33ErickM
  • 10MatheuzinhoM
  • 6Emmanuel MartínezM
  • 88Zé VitorM
  • 91Renê SousaF
Substitutes
  • 95Caique GonçalvesM
  • 79Renato KayzerF
  • 12Diego TarziaD
  • 8Tomás PochettinoM
  • 98MateusinhoD
  • 71Yuri SenaG
  • 26EdenilsonM
  • 70Fabiano SouzaD
  • 2Emanuel BrítezD
Coach: Ventura Jair

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Botafogo2688103841-332
12Vitoria2796122739-1233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Vitoria

  • 23 July 2026Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 9 November 2025Vitoria 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
  • 17 July 2025Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 23 November 2024Botafogo 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 12 July 2024Vitoria 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 22 May 2024Vitoria 1–2 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil

Leading scorers: Botafogo and Vitoria

Botafogo

  • Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
  • Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists

Vitoria

  • Rene8 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.