Botafogo vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Botafogo, 28% draw, 32% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 17WarlesonG
- 2VitinhoD
- 34Gabriel JustinoD
- 21MarçalD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 6Cristian MedinaM
- 77Lucas VillalbaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 79Lucas EmanuelF
- 4Mateo PonteD
- 23Santiago RodríguezM
- 37Kadir BarríaF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 63HerickD
- 33Lucas MonzónD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 83JamersonD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 13RamonD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 6Emmanuel MartínezM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91Renê SousaF
- 95Caique GonçalvesM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 12Diego TarziaD
- 8Tomás PochettinoM
- 98MateusinhoD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 26EdenilsonM
- 70Fabiano SouzaD
- 2Emanuel BrítezD
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Vitoria
- 9 November 2025Vitoria 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 17 July 2025Botafogo 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 23 November 2024Botafogo 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 12 July 2024Vitoria 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 May 2024Vitoria 1–2 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Vitoria
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo and Vitoria drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Botafogo at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.39.