23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Internacional vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Internacional 1-2 Cruzeiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Internacional, 22% draw, 41% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruzeiro at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Kaio Jorgeassist: Fagner
16'
Gerson
18'
Fagner
33'
Matheus Pereira
A. Bernabei
35'
45+3'
Jonathan Jesus
🔁L. F. de Morais Franciscoout: Matheus Bahia
46'
🔁G. Mercadoout: Victor Gabriel
46'
Victor Gabriel
59'
62'
🔁Gabriel Pecout: Bruno Rodrigues
64'
⚽Matheus Pereiraassist: Fagner
66'
Matheus Henrique
🔁Alerrandroout: Bruno Henrique
73'
77'
🔁L. Sinisterraout: Lucas Silva
⚽J. Carboneroassist: Matheus Bahia
83'
🔁Bruno Gomesout: B. Aguirre
86'
🔁R. Villagraout: Paulinho Paula
86'
86'
🔁Gersonout: Wanderson
87'
🔁Kaio Jorgeout: N. Villarreal
87'
🔁Fagnerout: William Furtado
89'
Lucas Silva

Match stats — Internacional vs Cruzeiro

47%Possession53%
21Shots13
3On target6
5Corners7
1.74xG1.79

Goals against chances

Internacional1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Cruzeiro2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Internacional 4-4-2
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 4Félix TorresD
  • 25Gabriel MercadoD
  • 3Guillermo MaripánD
  • 53Luiz FelipeD
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 15Bruno GomesM
  • 5Rodrigo VillagraM
  • 26Alexandro BernabeiM
  • 7Johan CarboneroF
  • 9AlerrandroF
Substitutes
  • 41Victor GabrielD
  • 6Matheus BahiaD
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 35Braian AguirreD
  • 27Paulinho PaulaM
  • 24Filipe Borba SirioG
  • 18Jose JuninhoD
  • 31AllexM
  • 52Gabriel Vinicius Oliveira da SilvaM
Coach: Paulo Pezzolano
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
  • 81Otávio CostaG
  • 23FagnerD
  • 15Fabrício BrunoD
  • 34Jonathan JesusD
  • 27Gabriel RojasD
  • 7Matheus HenriqueM
  • 8GersonM
  • 77Gabriel PecM
  • 10Matheus PereiraM
  • 17Luis SinisterraM
  • 19Kaio JorgeF
Substitutes
  • 9Bruno RodriguesF
  • 16Lucas SilvaM
  • 94WandersonF
  • 12William FurtadoD
  • 22Néiser VillarrealM
  • 51Vitor LamounierG
  • 2Kauã MoraesD
  • 25Lucas VillalbaD
  • 43João MarceloD
Coach: Jorge Artur

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Internacional27610113035-528
6Cruzeiro2712693939042

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Internacional vs Cruzeiro

  • 23 July 2026Internacional 1–2 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 23 August 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 InternacionalSerie A
  • 6 April 2025Internacional 3–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 28 August 2024Cruzeiro 0–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 25 August 2024Internacional 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 5 November 2023Cruzeiro 1–2 InternacionalSerie A

Leading scorers: Internacional and Cruzeiro

Internacional

  • J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists

Cruzeiro

  • Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
  • Kaio Jorge7 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.