Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-3 Argentinos Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sarmiento Junin, 21% draw, 50% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Iván ArboledaG
- 29Thiago SantamaríaD
- 44Renzo OrihuelaD
- 2Juan Manuel InsaurraldeD
- 3Lucas SuárezD
- 8Santiago SalleM
- 15Cristian ZabalaM
- 23Elián GiménezM
- 33Gabriel DíazM
- 27Junior MarabelF
- 7Pablo MagninF
- 5Manuel GarciaM
- 24Jonathan HerreraF
- 21Julián MavillaM
- 9Diego ChurinF
- 11Gastón GonzálezF
- 12Thyago AyalaG
- 6Gastón ArturiaD
- 4Juan Manuel CabreraD
- 35Facundo AlaggiaM
- 25Brayan CortésG
- 17Franco ParedesD
- 16Francisco ÁlvarezD
- 4Erik GodoyD
- 20Sebastián PrietoD
- 10Alan LescanoM
- 8Lucas GómezM
- 11Nicolas OrozM
- 48Facundo JainikoskiM
- 7Iván MoralesF
- 9Gastón VerónF
- 22Kevin CoronelD
- 15Kevin GutiérrezM
- 27Tomás MolinaF
- 47Diego PorcelF
- 23Hernán López MuñozM
- 50Diego RodríguezG
- 26Claudio BravoD
- 13Santino GianiniD
- 29Emiliano ViverosM
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 21 |
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors
- 26 January 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 August 2024Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 April 2023Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 June 2022Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 April 2022Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Argentinos Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Argentinos Juniors
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Argentinos Juniors won 3–2 at Sarmiento Junin. The model had made a win for Argentinos Juniors its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Junior Marabel 30' for Sarmiento Junin, Alan Lescano 48' for Argentinos Juniors, Sebastián Prieto 58' for Argentinos Juniors, Renzo Orihuela 69' for Sarmiento Junin, Diego Porcel 90' for Argentinos Juniors. Sent off: Diego Porcel (Argentinos Juniors) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.37.