23 July 2026, 22:30 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Perón, Junin
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-3 Argentinos Juniors.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sarmiento Junin, 21% draw, 50% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Argentinos Juniors at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Elián Giménez
12'
16'
Franco Paredes
24'
Iván Morales
⚽Junior Marabelassist: Pablo Magnin
30'
38'
🔁Erik Godoyout: Kevin Coronel
43'
Francisco Álvarez
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
45+1'
🔁Elián Giménezout: Manuel Garcia
46'
46'
🔁Lucas Gómezout: Kevin Gutiérrez
46'
🔁Iván Moralesout: Tomás Molina
48'
⚽Alan Lescanoassist: Tomás Molina
Cristian Zabala
53'
54'
Alan Lescano
🔁Pablo Magninout: Jonathan Herrera
57'
58'
⚽Sebastián Prieto
⚽Renzo Orihuelaassist: Cristian Zabala
69'
72'
🔁Facundo Jainikoskiout: Diego Porcel
76'
Diego Porcel
80'
🔁Gastón Verónout: Hernán López Muñoz
🔁Santiago Salleout: Julián Mavilla
84'
🔁Junior Marabelout: Diego Churin
84'
90'
⚽Diego Porcelassist: Hernán López Muñoz
90+1'
Diego Porcel
90+1'
Diego Porcel
🔁Gabriel Díazout: Gastón González
90'

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors

45%Possession55%
12Shots13
3On target5
7Corners2
1.34xG1.37

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin2 from 1.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Argentinos Juniors3 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin
  • 1Iván ArboledaG
  • 29Thiago SantamaríaD
  • 44Renzo OrihuelaD
  • 2Juan Manuel InsaurraldeD
  • 3Lucas SuárezD
  • 8Santiago SalleM
  • 15Cristian ZabalaM
  • 23Elián GiménezM
  • 33Gabriel DíazM
  • 27Junior MarabelF
  • 7Pablo MagninF
Substitutes
  • 5Manuel GarciaM
  • 24Jonathan HerreraF
  • 21Julián MavillaM
  • 9Diego ChurinF
  • 11Gastón GonzálezF
  • 12Thyago AyalaG
  • 6Gastón ArturiaD
  • 4Juan Manuel CabreraD
  • 35Facundo AlaggiaM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Argentinos Juniors
  • 25Brayan CortésG
  • 17Franco ParedesD
  • 16Francisco ÁlvarezD
  • 4Erik GodoyD
  • 20Sebastián PrietoD
  • 10Alan LescanoM
  • 8Lucas GómezM
  • 11Nicolas OrozM
  • 48Facundo JainikoskiM
  • 7Iván MoralesF
  • 9Gastón VerónF
Substitutes
  • 22Kevin CoronelD
  • 15Kevin GutiérrezM
  • 27Tomás MolinaF
  • 47Diego PorcelF
  • 23Hernán López MuñozM
  • 50Diego RodríguezG
  • 26Claudio BravoD
  • 13Santino GianiniD
  • 29Emiliano ViverosM
Coach: Nicolas Diez

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos Juniors

  • 23 July 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–3 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 January 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 August 2024Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 April 2023Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 June 2022Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 April 2022Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Argentinos Juniors

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Argentinos Juniors

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.