Independiente vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Independiente, 31% draw, 26% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 16M. Perez CurciM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 8M. MezaM
- 7S. MontielF
- 6C. AvilaF
- 19M. AbaldoF
- 77S. MeleG
- 4S. AriasD
- 2F. CalderonD
- 20F. CruzM
- 32D. MartinezM
- 14L. MillanM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 9I. MoralesF
- 30T. ParmoM
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 5I. PerruzziM
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoM
- 38F. FariasF
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 6M. De RitisD
- 42F. LorenzonD
- 30N. AriasD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 39U. OjedaM
- 13J. RattalinoM
- 14A. LadstatterF
Form going into Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
- L0-2Huracan9 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs San Lorenzo
- 2 May 2026San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 September 2025Independiente 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 March 2025San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Independiente 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 April 2023San Lorenzo 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and San Lorenzo
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
San Lorenzo
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente and San Lorenzo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente at 43% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Arrayago 7' for Independiente, F. Farias 51' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 0.95–0.43.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.