Independiente
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Independiente, 30% draw, 27% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Independiente 1.43, San Lorenzo 0.89.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Independiente
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs San Lorenzo
- 2 May 2026San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 September 2025Independiente 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 March 2025San Lorenzo 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Independiente 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 April 2023San Lorenzo 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 June 2022San Lorenzo 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and San Lorenzo
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
San Lorenzo
- R. Auzmendi6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.64 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Independiente and 0.89 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.82 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.69 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente a 3.1% chance of the title and San Lorenzo 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Independiente against 0.89 for San Lorenzo. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.07 for San Lorenzo.