Santos
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Santos 2–1 Bahia
The model makes it 45% Santos, 27% draw, 28% Bahia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Santos 1.65, Bahia 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Santos are 8th on 42 points from 30 games; Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Santos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Bahia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mirassol.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Bahia 2–2 Santos.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santos vs Bahia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos vs Bahia
Santos
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
- D2-2Flamengo8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
Bahia
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
What these results say
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Santos had three goals or more.
- Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 42 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Santos vs Bahia
- 25 April 2026Bahia 2–2 SantosSerie A
- 24 August 2025Bahia 2–0 SantosSerie A
- 6 April 2025Santos 2–2 BahiaSerie A
- 18 September 2023Bahia 1–2 SantosSerie A
- 31 May 2023Bahia 1–1 SantosCopa Do Brasil
- 17 May 2023Santos 0–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Santos and Bahia
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa143
- Neymar83
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Santos carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.78 for Bahia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Santos and 1.20 for Bahia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos rate 1.00 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bahia rate 0.91 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bahia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Santos against 1.20 for Bahia. Santos's attack/defence rating is 1/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.04 for Bahia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santos at home · Bahia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Santos 30, Bahia 30.
Santos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Bahia have let in 9 there.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Santos have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Santos
- vs Palmeiras28 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at RB Bragantino2 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- at Coritiba18 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- vs Gremio22 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
Bahia
- vs Sao Paulo29 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
- at Cruzeiro6 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Gremio18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Coritiba22 Nov · Serie Awin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.