Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Santos Laguna, 24% draw, 30% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Santos Laguna at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 14E. OronaD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25F. SanchezD
- 17E. EcheverriaD
- 21F. VillalbaM
- 5A. LopezM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 7D. GonzalezF
- 19E. AguirreF
- 33H. HolguinG
- 4J. AbellaD
- 28J. PerezD
- 22K. PiconD
- 8S. Mariscal MurraM
- 6J. GuemezM
- 15J. ManchaM
- 26R. SordoM
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 1R. RangelG
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 16L. ReyD
- 7L. RomoD
- 14H. CamberosM
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 17R. MarinF
- 25R. AlvaradoF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 24M. GomezD
- 56A. ChavezD
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 30S. Sandoval
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 18J. PerezM
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
- L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 14 March 2026Guadalajara Chivas 3–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 11 August 2025Santos Laguna 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 12 January 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 6 November 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 14 January 2024Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Guadalajara Chivas
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guadalajara Chivas won 1–0 at Santos Laguna. The model had leaned towards a win for Santos Laguna at 46% and given a win for Guadalajara Chivas 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: R. Marin (penalty) 75' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.08.