Necaxa vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 1-2 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Necaxa, 23% draw, 16% Leon — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Necaxa at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Necaxa vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12L. JimenezG
- 5NavesD
- 4A. PenaD
- 20F. MendezD
- 30R. MonrealM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 88C. VargasM
- 21M. EspindolaF
- 10J. RuizF
- 90J. ValenciaF
- 1C. AndradeG
- 33R. MartinezD
- 15D. OchoaD
- 14M. ZaletaM
- 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
- 13O. GonzalezM
- 17R. CortezM
- 16P. PedrazaM
- 27M. PedrozaF
- 23O. GarciaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomanaD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 5S. VegasD
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 20R. EcheverriaM
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 12J. GonzalezG
- 185C. Mora
- 4B. ColulaD
- 26S. ReyesM
- 25P. BellonD
- 35L. ValadezM
- 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
- 22S. SantosM
- 203J. LaraD
Form going into Necaxa vs Leon
Necaxa
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Leon
All competitions we cover
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Leon
- 11 July 2026Leon 0–0 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
- 1 March 2026Leon 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 3 January 2026Leon 1–2 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
- 16 August 2025Necaxa 0–1 LeonLiga MX
- 15 March 2025Necaxa 2–1 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Leon
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leon won 2–1 at Necaxa. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 61% and given a win for Leon 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: D. Arcila 27' for Leon, M. Espindola 65' for Necaxa, J. P. Dominguez Chonteco 72' for Leon. Sent off: R. Echeverria (Leon) 60'. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.97.