Necaxa
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 59% Necaxa, 23% draw, 18% Leon — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Necaxa 1.88, Leon 0.96.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Necaxa
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Leon
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Necaxa
- J. Carranza3 goals1 assists
Leon
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Necaxa carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.54 for Leon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Necaxa W-W-L; Leon L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Necaxa and 0.96 for Leon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Necaxa rate 0.77 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leon rate 0.69 and 1.29.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Necaxa the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Necaxa against 0.96 for Leon. Necaxa's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.29 for Leon.