Arda Kardzhali
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 66% Arda Kardzhali, 16% draw, 18% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 1.52, 6.25 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 3.02, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.59.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arda Kardzhali
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.39 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Arda Kardzhali D-W-L-W; Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.02 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.59 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.68 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.84 and 2.35.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 1.59 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/2.35 for Lokomotiv Sofia.