18 August 2026, 03:06 UTC

CF Pachuca vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Full time2 – 3

Final score: CF Pachuca 2-3 Puebla.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% CF Pachuca, 19% draw, 12% Puebla — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CF Pachuca at 69%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Pachuca6%Draw92%Puebla2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽E. Gomezassist: E. Mustre
33'
⚽K. Velasco (pen)
⚽S. Rondonassist: C. Sanchez
42'
🔁E. Montielout: R. Pizarro
46'
🔁Kenedyout: N. Vallejo
46'
⚽S. Rondon (pen)
63'
65'
🔁S. Sanabriaout: A. Ramirez
🔁O. Idrissiout: G. Alvarez
77'
🔁C. Sanchezout: A. Mozo
83'
🔁S. Rondonout: A. Alcaraz
83'
83'
🔁E. Mustreout: O. Villa
83'
🔁I. Morenoout: Lucas Camilo
83'
🔁E. Gomezout: L. Hernandez
87'
🔁B. Garnicaout: C. Baltazar
90'
⚽F. Almadaassist: L. Hernandez

Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Puebla

56%Possession44%
22Shots12
4On target5
5Corners3
2.25xG2.27

Goals against chances

CF Pachuca2 from 2.25 xGabout what the chances were worth
Puebla3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 14C. SanchezD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. D. BarretoD
  • 6M. IsaisD
  • 30S. Rodriguez
  • 10E. MontielM
  • 29KenedyM
  • 26A. BautistaM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondonF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 22A. MozoD
  • 206T. A. ContrerasM
  • 187G. AlvarezF
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 9A. AlcarazM
  • 21N. VallejoF
Coach: Benjamin Mora
Puebla 4-2-3-1
  • 28D. GutierrezG
  • 12I. MorenoD
  • 5F. AlmadaD
  • 4J. VargasD
  • 7F. MonarrezD
  • 24A. OrganistaM
  • 21S. SanabriaM
  • 27B. GarnicaM
  • 26K. VelascoM
  • 11E. GomezM
  • 29E. MustreF
Substitutes
  • 182Y. OrtegaG
  • 15O. VillaD
  • 20J. R. Pachuca MartinezD
  • 2A. Leyva
  • 22C. BaltazarM
  • 10M. TomasM
  • 16A. RamirezM
  • 34Lucas CamiloM
  • 9L. HernandezF
Coach: Gerardo Espinoza

Form going into CF Pachuca vs Puebla

CF Pachuca

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
  • L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026

Puebla

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8CF Pachuca166462920+922
13Puebla165471923-419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Puebla

  • 4 July 2026CF Pachuca 3–1 PueblaFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 24 September 2025Puebla 2–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 27 February 2025CF Pachuca 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 21 September 2024Puebla 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX

The full CF Pachuca vs Puebla record →

Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Puebla

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón162

Puebla

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Puebla won 3–2 at CF Pachuca. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 69% and given a win for Puebla 12%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: E. Gomez 16' for Puebla, K. Velasco (penalty) 33' for Puebla, S. Rondon 42' for CF Pachuca, S. Rondon (penalty) 63' for CF Pachuca, F. Almada 90' for Puebla. On expected goals it finished 2.25–2.27.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.