RED Star FC 93 vs Metz Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: RED Star FC 93 1-0 Metz.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% RED Star FC 93, 28% draw, 42% Metz — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
Line-ups
- 16G. PoussinG
- 2T. MagninD
- 20D. DurivauxD
- 4E. ZidaneD
- 3M. HuardD
- 19I. HalifaM
- 17S. RenelM
- 11K. CisséM
- 10S. KhaouiM
- 23J. Ikanga A NgeleM
- 91K. CabralF
- 5J. EscartinD
- 45Cheick KonateM
- 21Idrissa SabalyM
- 8G. TraniM
- 27G. KyeremehF
- 7D. DurandF
- 6B. DangerD
- 1Yanis Benchaouch MartyG
- 25Leonardo ButaD
- 1J. FischerG
- 70B. SarrD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 4U. MboulaD
- 2M. ColinD
- 18B. MunongoM
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 21J. PandoreM
- 10T. SavanierM
- 9G. AbuashviliM
- 11P. FallF
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 22N. MbalaF
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
- 6N. MendyM
- 3F. MiguelD
- 5J. RuizD
- 7Ibou SanéF
- 39B. SongD
- 61P. SyG
Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
RED Star FC 93
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne21 August 2026
- D0-0Sochaux14 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nantes8 August 2026
Metz
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
- W2-1Guingamp8 August 2026
What these results say
- RED Star FC 93 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
- 19 July 2025Metz 4–0 RED Star FC 93Friendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2025Metz 2–2 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 29 October 2024RED Star FC 93 1–0 MetzLigue 2
- 26 April 2019RED Star FC 93 1–2 MetzLigue 2
- 4 December 2018Metz 2–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and Metz
RED Star FC 93
GoalsAssists
- D. Durand50
- J. Ikanga A Ngele42
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
RED Star FC 93 beat Metz 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Metz at 42% and given a win for RED Star FC 93 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Jovany Ikanga A Ngele (penalty) 58' for RED Star FC 93.
How the call on RED Star FC 93 v Metz has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Metz's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- RED Star FC 93 win30%▼ −2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Metz win42%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.