RED Star FC 93
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: RED Star FC 93 1-0 Metz.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% RED Star FC 93, 28% draw, 40% Metz — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: RED Star FC 93 1.31, Metz 1.60.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
RED Star FC 93
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne21 August 2026
- D0-0Sochaux14 August 2026
Metz
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | RED Star FC 93 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz
- 19 July 2025Metz 4–0 RED Star FC 93Friendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2025Metz 2–2 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 29 October 2024RED Star FC 93 1–0 MetzLigue 2
- 26 April 2019RED Star FC 93 1–2 MetzLigue 2
- 4 December 2018Metz 2–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 25 October 2017Metz 1–0 RED Star FC 93Coupe de la Ligue
Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and Metz
RED Star FC 93
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
RED Star FC 93 carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.65 for Metz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.60 for Metz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RED Star FC 93 rate 0.63 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Metz rate 0.85 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RED Star FC 93, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives RED Star FC 93 a 0.1% chance of the title and Metz 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 against 1.6 for Metz. RED Star FC 93's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.28 for Metz.