22 September 2026, 23:00 UTC

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Referee: Andres Rojas
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Independiente Medellin, 26% draw, 20% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Independiente Medellin at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Independiente Medellin98%Draw2%Jaguares0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
A. Renteria
25'
⚽A. Renteria (pen)
⚽A. Marteganiassist: J. Montano
32'
E. Mena Perea
34'
37'
J. Lovera
39'
R. Bustamante
🔁J. Quinteroout: Yony Gonzalez
40'
K. Klinger
63'
66'
🔁D. Lopezout: J. Mejia
⚽J. Montanoassist: Yony Gonzalez
70'
🔁K. Klingerout: H. Loboa
74'
75'
🔁S. Cubidesout: D. Rodriguez Urango
75'
🔁J. Beltranout: Jopito
75'
🔁J. Arcilaout: E. Martinez
🔁J. Montanoout: N. Erazo
80'
🔁A. Marteganiout: D. Moreno
80'
🔁J. Medinaout: C. Lucumi
80'
84'
🔁A. Renteriaout: D. Zuluaga
84'
J. Lovera
84'
J. Lovera

Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares

54%Possession46%
24Shots7
9On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1
  • 25E. ChauxG
  • 30H. PalaciosD
  • 4K. MantillaD
  • 19A. SimarraD
  • 26E. Mena PereaD
  • 6D. MorenoM
  • 21A. MarteganiM
  • 34K. KlingerM
  • 8J. QuinteroM
  • 20J. MontanoM
  • 9J. MedinaF
Substitutes
  • 1S. IchazoG
  • 5J. VarelaD
  • 39L. EscorciaD
  • 14B. PerlazaM
  • 31D. MorenoM
  • 16H. LoboaM
  • 11Yony GonzalezF
  • 32C. LucumiF
  • 24N. ErazoM
Coach: Luis Perea
Jaguares 4-4-2
  • 1D. MartinezG
  • 4J. FrancoD
  • 6J. LoveraD
  • 29C. HenaoD
  • 23J. ArcilaD
  • 17D. LopezM
  • 5R. R. Colpa BolanoM
  • 21R. BustamanteM
  • 24S. CubidesM
  • 16J. BeltranF
  • 11A. RenteriaF
Substitutes
  • 12F. MosqueraG
  • 3J. MalagonD
  • 14E. MartinezD
  • 10JopitoM
  • 19C. CantilloM
  • 8D. Rodriguez UrangoF
  • 9J. MejiaF
  • 27F. GraciaM
  • 28D. ZuluagaM
Coach: Hubert Bodhert

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Independiente Medellin189272825+329
19Jaguares1834111735-1813

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares

  • 15 March 2026Jaguares 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 7 August 2025Jaguares 0–1 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
  • 31 July 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 JaguaresCopa Colombia
  • 29 October 2024Independiente Medellin 4–1 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 7 April 2024Jaguares 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A

Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Jaguares

Independiente Medellin

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.