Independiente Medellin
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Independiente Medellin, 26% draw, 20% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 2.23, Jaguares 0.92.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 54% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Line-ups
- 25E. ChauxG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 4K. MantillaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. Mena PereaD
- 6D. MorenoM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 8J. QuinteroM
- 20J. MontanoM
- 9J. MedinaF
- 1S. IchazoG
- 5J. VarelaD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 31D. MorenoM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 11Yony GonzalezF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 24N. ErazoM
- 1D. MartinezG
- 4J. FrancoD
- 6J. LoveraD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 23J. ArcilaD
- 17D. LopezM
- 5R. R. Colpa BolanoM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 24S. CubidesM
- 16J. BeltranF
- 11A. RenteriaF
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 3J. MalagonD
- 14E. MartinezD
- 10JopitoM
- 19C. CantilloM
- 8D. Rodriguez UrangoF
- 9J. MejiaF
- 27F. GraciaM
- 28D. ZuluagaM
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
- D2-2away to Bucaramanga18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chico12 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportivo Pereira4 September 2026
- W2-1Llaneros30 August 2026
Jaguares
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
- D3-3away to Junior6 September 2026
- D2-2America de Cali29 August 2026
- W1-0Chico21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares
- 22 September 2026Independiente Medellin 2–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 15 March 2026Jaguares 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 7 August 2025Jaguares 0–1 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 31 July 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 JaguaresCopa Colombia
- 29 October 2024Independiente Medellin 4–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 7 April 2024Jaguares 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Jaguares
- A. Rentería9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.23 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.92 for Jaguares; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Renteria 25' (Jaguares), A. Martegani 32' (Independiente Medellin), J. Montano 70' (Independiente Medellin).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Medellin the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Independiente Medellin against 0.92 for Jaguares. Independiente Medellin's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.85 for Jaguares.