22 September 2026, 00:15 UTC

Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Referee: Nicolas Ramirez
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lanus 2-1 Estudiantes La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Lanus, 25% draw, 22% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lanus at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lanus97%Draw3%Estudiantes La Plata0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Lobosassist: E. Salvio
13'
25'
Leandro González Pírez
🔁F. Pena Biaforeout: A. Medina
31'
60'
🔁A. Castroout: B. Rodriguez
60'
🔁J. Burgosout: E. Cetre
⚽E. Salvio (pen)
60'
🔁L. Besozziout: G. Perez
64'
🔁A. Wlkout: Y. Valois
64'
73'
🔁L. Pioviout: J. Elias
73'
🔁Perez Fabricioout: G. Carrillo
🔁E. Salvioout: T. Laplace
80'
🔁G. Lobosout: Marcelino Moreno
80'
Sasha Marcich
83'
84'
⚽L. Gonzalez Pirez
86'
🔁G. Benedettiout: B. Aguirre
Yoshan Valois
90+5'
90+4'
Eric Meza

Match stats — Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata

41%Possession59%
6Shots24
3On target5
1Corners8
1.21xG1.49

Goals against chances

Lanus2 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Estudiantes La Plata1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 35R. De JesusD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 5F. Pena BiaforeM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 42G. LobosM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 4G. PerezD
  • 39T. LaplaceM
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 27F. SanchezD
  • 40T. LopezD
  • 43M. Ramirez
  • 8F. N. WatsonM
  • 10Marcelino MorenoM
Coach: Mauricio Pellegrino
Estudiantes La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 4S. NunezD
  • 14L. Gonzalez PirezD
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 8Gabriel NevesM
  • 21L. PioviM
  • 29Perez FabricioM
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 17J. BurgosM
  • 19A. GaichF
Substitutes
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 26R. Funes MoriD
  • 24T. PalaciosD
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 7J. SosaM
  • 39J. EliasM
  • 52B. KociubinskiM
  • 31B. RodriguezM
  • 18E. CetreF
Coach: Alexander Medina

Form going into Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata

Lanus

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
  • D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
  • L1-3Independiente17 August 2026

Estudiantes La Plata

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Platense12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
  • D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
  • W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Lanus147341710+724
11Estudiantes La Plata144281718-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata

  • 13 March 2026Estudiantes La Plata 0–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 May 2024Lanus 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 17 April 2024Lanus 1–2 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 27 November 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 13 February 2023Estudiantes La Plata 0–2 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata record →

The result against the call

Lanus beat Estudiantes La Plata 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lanus at 53%. The goals: G. Lobos 13' for Lanus, E. Salvio (penalty) 60' for Lanus, L. Gonzalez Pirez 84' for Estudiantes La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.49.

How the call on Lanus v Estudiantes La Plata has moved

First published on 8 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Lanus's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lanus win53%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Estudiantes La Plata win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.