Lanus
vs
Estudiantes La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Lanus 2–1 Estudiantes La Plata
The model makes it 53% Lanus, 25% draw, 22% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lanus 2.26, Estudiantes La Plata 1.04.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lanus wins, grey are draws, red are Estudiantes La Plata wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata
Lanus
- W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
- W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
- W2-1Platense12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
- W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lanus vs Estudiantes La Plata
- 13 March 2026Estudiantes La Plata 0–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2024Lanus 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 April 2024Lanus 1–2 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 27 November 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 13 February 2023Estudiantes La Plata 0–2 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 October 2022Estudiantes La Plata 3–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Lanus and Estudiantes La Plata
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lanus carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.65 for Estudiantes La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Lanus and 1.04 for Estudiantes La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lanus rate 1.07 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.87 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lanus a 3.5% chance of the title and Estudiantes La Plata 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Lanus against 1.04 for Estudiantes La Plata. Lanus's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.3 for Estudiantes La Plata.