Llaneros
vs
Atletico Nacional
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Llaneros 2-0 Atletico Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Llaneros, 30% draw, 40% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Llaneros 1.03, Atletico Nacional 1.40.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 40% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. Romana GaravitoG
- 26D. QuinteroD
- 2H. H. Mena PosadaD
- 21F. MezaD
- 94J. MedrandaD
- 13J. CastillaM
- 95Jhon VasquezM
- 7L. MirandaM
- 10N. OspinaM
- 32F. CastanedaM
- 17Y. MenaF
- 12J. LoaizaG
- 23A. MoralezD
- 36A. Sanchez
- 33Kelvin OsorioM
- 8J. RamirezM
- 70J. ContrerasF
- 9C. CortesF
- 19D. MantillaM
- 14K. RinconF
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 6A. RomanD
- 3N. ParraD
- 4C. HaydarD
- 20M. CascoD
- 80J. ZapataM
- 31X. RiosM
- 29A. SarmientoM
- 19J. RengifoM
- 7M. MorenoM
- 17C. ArangoF
- 44E. ZeaG
- 27Y. A. Perlaza PereaD
- 15A. ReyesD
- 23J. RodriguezM
- 21J. CampuzanoM
- 22E. CabreraM
- 30K. Parra AtehortuaM
- 99I. PovedaF
- 24J. RosaF
Form going into Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
Llaneros
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
- L1-2Deportes Tolima7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin30 August 2026
- L0-2Millonarios27 August 2026
Atletico Nacional
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas13 September 2026
- W5-1away to Alianza Valledupar30 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Cali27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Llaneros | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
- 21 September 2026Llaneros 2–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 14 March 2026Atletico Nacional 2–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 31 October 2025Llaneros 0–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 11 May 2025Atletico Nacional 2–1 LlanerosPrimera A
Leading scorers: Llaneros and Atletico Nacional
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Atletico Nacional
- A. Morelos14 goals6 assists
- J. Rengifo7 goals7 assists
- A. Sarmiento7 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.03 goals for Llaneros and 1.40 for Atletico Nacional; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Y. Mena 15' (Llaneros), F. Castaneda 34' (Llaneros).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Llaneros against 1.4 for Atletico Nacional. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.18 for Atletico Nacional.