21 September 2026, 01:15 UTC

Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Bello Horizonte “Rey Pelé”, Villavicencio
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Llaneros 2-0 Atletico Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Llaneros, 30% draw, 40% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Llaneros99%Draw1%Atletico Nacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Y. Menaassist: Jhon Vasquez
15'
Howell Mena
24'
Jhon Vásquez
32'
⚽F. Castanedaassist: J. Medranda
34'
Juan Castilla
38'
Neider Ospina
45+2'
🔁N. Ospinaout: Kelvin Osorio
46'
🔁Jhon Vasquezout: J. Contreras
46'
46'
🔁J. Rengifoout: J. Rodriguez
46'
🔁J. Zapataout: J. Campuzano
46'
🔁X. Riosout: E. Cabrera
58'
🔁C. Arangoout: I. Poveda
🔁Y. Menaout: C. Cortes
59'
Frank Castañeda
71'
72'
🔁M. Cascoout: Y. A. Perlaza Perea
🔁F. Castanedaout: D. Mantilla
75'
🔁L. Mirandaout: J. Ramirez
83'
85'
Yeicar Perlaza
85'
•Yeicar Perlaza
90+5'
Jorman Campuzano

Match stats — Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional

21%Possession79%
8Shots20
5On target5
4Corners9
0.83xG1.18

Goals against chances

Llaneros2 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atletico Nacional0 from 1.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Llaneros 4-1-4-1
  • 22R. Romana GaravitoG
  • 26D. QuinteroD
  • 2H. H. Mena PosadaD
  • 21F. MezaD
  • 94J. MedrandaD
  • 13J. CastillaM
  • 95Jhon VasquezM
  • 7L. MirandaM
  • 10N. OspinaM
  • 32F. CastanedaM
  • 17Y. MenaF
Substitutes
  • 12J. LoaizaG
  • 23A. MoralezD
  • 36A. Sanchez
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
  • 8J. RamirezM
  • 70J. ContrerasF
  • 9C. CortesF
  • 19D. MantillaM
  • 14K. RinconF
Coach: Jose Garcia
Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. MarquinezG
  • 6A. RomanD
  • 3N. ParraD
  • 4C. HaydarD
  • 20M. CascoD
  • 80J. ZapataM
  • 31X. RiosM
  • 29A. SarmientoM
  • 19J. RengifoM
  • 7M. MorenoM
  • 17C. ArangoF
Substitutes
  • 44E. ZeaG
  • 27Y. A. Perlaza PereaD
  • 15A. ReyesD
  • 23J. RodriguezM
  • 21J. CampuzanoM
  • 22E. CabreraM
  • 30K. Parra AtehortuaM
  • 99I. PovedaF
  • 24J. RosaF
Coach: Lucas Gonzalez

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Llaneros187292124-323
1Atletico Nacional1812333717+2039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional

  • 14 March 2026Atletico Nacional 2–0 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 31 October 2025Llaneros 0–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 11 May 2025Atletico Nacional 2–1 LlanerosPrimera A

Leading scorers: Llaneros and Atletico Nacional

Llaneros

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.