Rosario Central
vs
Aldosivi
The model makes it 46% Rosario Central, 25% draw, 29% Aldosivi — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.75, Aldosivi 1.36.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Aldosivi
- 7 February 2026Aldosivi 1–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 July 2022Aldosivi 2–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 April 2022Aldosivi 1–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 August 2021Rosario Central 1–2 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 April 2021Aldosivi 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 December 2020Aldosivi 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rosario Central carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.63 for Aldosivi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Rosario Central W-L-L-D-W; Aldosivi L-D-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Rosario Central and 1.36 for Aldosivi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosario Central rate 0.80 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aldosivi rate 0.74 and 1.16.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Rosario Central against 1.36 for Aldosivi. Rosario Central's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.16 for Aldosivi.