Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Oțelul
The model makes it 19% Petrolul Ploiesti, 18% draw, 63% Oțelul — fair odds of 5.26, 5.56 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 1.47, Oțelul 2.73.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Bucuresti19 July 2026
Oțelul
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Oțelul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oțelul
- 18 May 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–5 OțelulLiga I
- 8 November 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 OțelulLiga I
- 13 July 2025Oțelul 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 12 May 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–3 OțelulLiga I
- 18 January 2025Oțelul 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 23 August 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers
Petrolul Ploiesti
No league goals recorded yet.
Oțelul
- Patrick3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Petrolul Ploiesti carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.67 for Oțelul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Petrolul Ploiesti W-L-L; Oțelul W-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 2.73 for Oțelul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.47 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oțelul rate 1.07 and 1.66.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 2.73 for Oțelul. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.66 for Oțelul.