MTK Budapest
vs
Puskas Academy
The model makes it 41% MTK Budapest, 33% draw, 26% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.08, Puskas Academy 0.79.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
MTK Budapest
- D3-3away to Budapest Honved1 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Puskas Academy
- L0-2Kisvarda FC31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Debreceni VSC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MTK Budapest | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 6 | Puskas Academy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy
- 15 May 2026Puskas Academy 2–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 14 February 2026MTK Budapest 2–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 25 October 2025Puskas Academy 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 6 April 2025Puskas Academy 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 30 November 2024MTK Budapest 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 18 August 2024Puskas Academy 1–0 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi3 goals1 assists
- G. Jurek1 goals1 assists
- I. Bognár1 goals1 assists
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MTK Budapest carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.42 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): MTK Budapest W-D; Puskas Academy W-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for MTK Budapest and 0.79 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MTK Budapest rate 0.49 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.44 and 1.17.
That points to 29% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (16%), 1-0 (16%), 1-1 (14%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 0.79 for Puskas Academy. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.17 for Puskas Academy.