2 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result

Aker Stadion, Molde
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Molde 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Molde, 24% draw, 23% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Molde at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Granaas
22'
33'
⚽D. Karlsbakkassist: C. Niyukuri
E. Hestad
40'
51'
⚽A. Nibe
⚽E. Hestadassist: E. Breivik
56'
⚽D. Dagaassist: E. Breivik
60'
🔁T. Kone-Dohertyout: J. Abdullai
64'
🔁C. Zadyout: O. Spiten-Nysaeter
64'
64'
🔁A. Nibeout: O. Skarsem
64'
🔁N. Williamsout: V. E. Halvorsen
72'
🔁C. Niyukuriout: E. Wichne
74'
S. Christiansen
🔁D. Dagaout: M. Enggaard
74'
🔁M. Linnesout: M. Lovik
74'
81'
🔁A. Sherout: Camil Mmaee
81'
🔁S. Sorliout: M. Opoku
🔁E. Hestadout: S. Diop
87'
89'
⚽A. Posiadala (OG)

Match stats — Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

63%Possession37%
16Shots10
9On target4
5Corners4
1.55xG0.75

Goals against chances

Molde3 from 1.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sarpsborg 08 FF3 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Molde
  • 22A. PosiadalaG
  • 25M. LinnesD
  • 4S. HansenD
  • 33B. RisaD
  • 26S. KabiniD
  • 10E. BreivikM
  • 30D. DagaM
  • 5E. HestadM
  • 23S. GranaasM
  • 11C. ZadyM
  • 24T. Kone-DohertyF
Substitutes
  • 12P. LervikG
  • 20M. EnggaardM
  • 9J. AbdullaiF
  • 29S. DiopF
  • 28V. BenderM
  • 52D. SylteD
  • 8M. LovikD
  • 6N. OdegardM
  • 21O. Spiten-NysaeterF
Coach: Sindre Tjelmeland
Sarpsborg 08 FF
  • 87L. OyG
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 6A. SherM
  • 10S. SorliM
  • 33A. NibeM
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
Substitutes
  • 13C. ErikssonG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 22V. E. HalvorsenM
  • 81M. Svenningsen GronnM
  • 7Camil MmaeeM
  • 15M. OpokuM
  • 18B. GueyeM
  • 50M. M. EidalD
Coach: Even Sel

Form going into Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Molde

  • W4-2away to KFUM Oslo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Brann18 July 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Molde2011364330+1336
9Sarpsborg 08 FF206772326-325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • 2 August 2026Molde 3–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 25 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 30 November 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 MoldeEliteserien
  • 30 March 2025Molde 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 10 November 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 MoldeEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Molde 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Sarpsborg 08 FF

Molde

  • E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
  • E. Breivik7 goals7 assists
  • Trent Toure Kone Doherty6 goals1 assists

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D. Karlsbakk6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.