Instituto Cordoba
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 48% Instituto Cordoba, 30% draw, 22% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.35, Newell's Old Boys 0.72.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Instituto Cordoba: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Instituto Cordoba are top on 29 points from 13 games; Newell's Old Boys are 6th on 21 points from 14 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Instituto Cordoba are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Newell's Old Boys have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to San Lorenzo.
- Last 3 meetings: Instituto Cordoba 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Instituto Cordoba.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Instituto Cordoba at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0away to Defensa Y Justicia16 October 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors9 October 2026
- W4-1away to Independiente2 October 2026
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D0-0away to San Lorenzo24 October 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
What these results say
- Instituto Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys
- 26 April 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 June 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 February 2023Instituto Cordoba 3–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Instituto Cordoba and Newell's Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- A. Luna73
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Instituto Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.6 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.72 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Instituto Cordoba rate 0.94 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.70 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Instituto Cordoba a 80.1% chance of the title and Newell's Old Boys 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 0.72 for Newell's Old Boys. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.17 for Newell's Old Boys.
How the model reaches 48% for Instituto Cordoba to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Instituto Cordoba to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Instituto Cordoba's ratings take away 4 points and Newell's Old Boys's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Instituto Cordoba's ratings37%−4
- Newell's Old Boys's ratings48%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Instituto Cordoba at home · Newell's Old Boys away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Instituto Cordoba 29, Newell's Old Boys 28.
Instituto Cordoba score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Newell's Old Boys have let in 9 there.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Instituto Cordoba have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.