Independiente
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Independiente 1–0 Deportivo Riestra
The model makes it 43% Independiente, 34% draw, 23% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.33, 2.94 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Independiente 1.08, Deportivo Riestra 0.67.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Independiente's rating is built from 65 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Deportivo Riestra's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Independiente are 8th on 19 points from 13 games; Deportivo Riestra are 13th on 12 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Independiente are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Racing Club.
- Deportivo Riestra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Union Santa Fe.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Deportivo Riestra 2–0 Independiente.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
- L1-4Instituto Cordoba2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Union Santa Fe20 October 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo11 October 2026
- D1-1Central Cordoba de Santiago5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Independiente | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
- 24 April 2026Deportivo Riestra 2–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 November 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 April 2025Independiente 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 October 2024Independiente 3–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 March 2024Deportivo Riestra 1–0 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Independiente and Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.54 for Deportivo Riestra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Independiente and 0.67 for Deportivo Riestra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.79 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Riestra rate 0.57 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Independiente against 0.67 for Deportivo Riestra. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.11 for Deportivo Riestra.
How the model reaches 43% for Independiente to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Independiente to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Independiente's ratings take away 11 points and Deportivo Riestra's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Independiente's ratings30%−11
- Deportivo Riestra's ratings43%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente at home · Deportivo Riestra away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Independiente 29, Deportivo Riestra 28.
Independiente score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Riestra have let in 1 there.
Deportivo Riestra score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Independiente have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.