Samgurali vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 3-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Samgurali, 27% draw, 31% Gagra — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Samgurali at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 39RyanD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 25WandersonM
- 7P. BorgesD
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 22G. SadghobelashviliD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 4V. ArsićD
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Samgurali vs Gagra
Samgurali
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Dinamo Tbilisi19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
What these results say
- Samgurali did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samgurali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Samgurali conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gagra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gagra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gagra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
| 9 | Gagra | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Gagra
- 24 June 2026Gagra 0–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 2 May 2026Samgurali 2–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 2 March 2026Gagra 0–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 2 November 2025Samgurali 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 24 August 2025Gagra 2–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
The result against the call
Samgurali beat Gagra 3–0. The model had made a win for Samgurali its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Irakli Bidzinashvili 7' for Samgurali, Tornike·Gaprindashvili 46' for Samgurali, Cebolinha claudio 88' for Samgurali.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Samgurali a 32.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.3% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 52.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 15 points lower than before the match.
For Gagra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.3% going in: 56.7% after a win, 76.1% after a draw, 88.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.5%, 13.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.