Atletico Goianiense
vs
Sport Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Sport Recife
The model makes it 41% Atletico Goianiense, 29% draw, 30% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Goianiense 1.48, Sport Recife 1.10.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Goianiense are 6th on 49 points from 30 games; Sport Recife are 9th on 47 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Atletico Goianiense have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Goias.
- Sport Recife have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Athletic Club MG.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 June 2026, ended Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico Goianiense.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Goianiense at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
- W1-0away to Goias26 September 2026
- L0-1away to São Bernardo19 September 2026
- W4-0Criciuma13 September 2026
- W2-1Ceara10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Juventude5 September 2026
Sport Recife
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CRB16 September 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta11 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Goianiense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
- 19 June 2026Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 11 November 2023Sport Recife 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 15 July 2023Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 31 October 2021Sport Recife 2–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
- 7 July 2021Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie A
- 23 November 2020Sport Recife 0–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
- Gustavo Coutinho13 goals
Sport Recife
- Chrystian Barletta11 goals3 assists
- Perotti11 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Goianiense carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.5 for Sport Recife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.10 for Sport Recife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Goianiense rate 0.63 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Recife rate 0.71 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Goianiense a 3.1% chance of the title and Sport Recife 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Goianiense the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense against 1.10 for Sport Recife. Atletico Goianiense's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.44 for Sport Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Goianiense at home · Sport Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Atletico Goianiense 30, Sport Recife 31.
Atletico Goianiense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Sport Recife have let in 10 there.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Goianiense
- at Ponte Preta16 Oct · Serie Bwin 57%
- vs Novorizontino24 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Fortaleza EC31 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
Sport Recife
- vs Fortaleza EC16 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Criciuma24 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Botafogo SP31 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Operario-PR7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.