Safa Baku
vs
Turan
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
The model makes it 27% Safa Baku, 32% draw, 41% Turan — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Safa Baku 0.81, Turan 1.25.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Safa Baku are 10th on 3 points from 6 games; Turan are 4th on 11 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Safa Baku are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Qarabag.
- Turan are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Zira.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Safa Baku vs Turan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turan at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Safa Baku vs Turan
Safa Baku
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1Imisli FK29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Qabala22 August 2026
Turan
- W1-0Zira19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Araz13 September 2026
- W2-1Sumqayıt6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz30 August 2026
- D0-0Şamaxı FK23 August 2026
What these results say
- Safa Baku failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Safa Baku | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Safa Baku carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.48 for Turan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Safa Baku and 1.25 for Turan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Safa Baku rate 0.40 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turan rate 0.58 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Safa Baku a 0% chance of the title and Turan 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Safa Baku against 1.25 for Turan. Safa Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.25 for Turan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Safa Baku at home · Turan away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Safa Baku 6, Turan 6.
Turan score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Safa Baku have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Safa Baku
- at Şamaxı FK16 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 22%
- vs Kapaz24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 38%
- at Sumqayıt31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- vs Araz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- vs Qabala21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
Turan
- at Imisli FK18 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- at Neftchi Baku24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 23%
- vs Sabah FA31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 27%
- at Qarabag7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 21%
- at Şamaxı FK21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.