Şamaxı FK
vs
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku
The model makes it 48% Şamaxı FK, 30% draw, 22% Safa Baku — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Şamaxı FK 1.57, Safa Baku 0.73.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Şamaxı FK are 6th on 9 points from 6 games; Safa Baku are 10th on 3 points from 6 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Araz.
- Safa Baku are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Qarabag.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Şamaxı FK at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turan23 August 2026
Safa Baku
- L0-1away to Qarabag18 September 2026
- L0-3Sabah FA14 September 2026
- L1-4away to Neftchi Baku5 September 2026
- L0-1Imisli FK29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Qabala22 August 2026
What these results say
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Şamaxı FK | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 10 | Safa Baku | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Şamaxı FK carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.11 for Safa Baku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Şamaxı FK and 0.73 for Safa Baku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Şamaxı FK rate 0.54 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Safa Baku rate 0.40 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Şamaxı FK a 0.1% chance of the title and Safa Baku 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Şamaxı FK the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Şamaxı FK against 0.73 for Safa Baku. Şamaxı FK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.79 for Safa Baku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Şamaxı FK at home · Safa Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Şamaxı FK 6, Safa Baku 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Şamaxı FK
- at Imisli FK25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 35%
- vs Neftchi Baku31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 28%
- at Sabah FA7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 14%
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 35%
Safa Baku
- vs Kapaz24 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 38%
- at Sumqayıt31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- vs Araz7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- vs Qabala21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.