Imisli FK
vs
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag
The model makes it 21% Imisli FK, 27% draw, 52% Qarabag — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Imisli FK 0.88, Qarabag 2.04.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 9th on 4 points from 6 games; Qarabag are 3rd on 13 points from 5 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Sabah FA.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Safa Baku.
- Last 3 meetings: Qarabag 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Qarabag 3–0 Imisli FK.
All Azerbaijan Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Qarabag
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 52% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Qarabag
Imisli FK
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Zira22 August 2026
Qarabag
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sumqayıt31 August 2026
- W3-1Şamaxı FK17 August 2026
What these results say
- Imisli FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Qarabag won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Imisli FK | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Qarabag
- 16 May 2026Qarabag 3–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 14 February 2026Imisli FK 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 31 October 2025Qarabag 2–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
A clear gap in the ratings
Imisli FK carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.74 for Qarabag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.88 goals for Imisli FK and 2.04 for Qarabag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Imisli FK rate 0.45 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qarabag rate 0.96 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Imisli FK a 0% chance of the title and Qarabag 17.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Imisli FK against 2.04 for Qarabag. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.2 for Qarabag.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Qarabag away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 6, Qarabag 5.
Qarabag score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Imisli FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- vs Turan18 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 29%
- vs Şamaxı FK25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 34%
- at Kapaz31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 30%
- vs Sumqayıt7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- vs Zira21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 31%
Qarabag
- vs Neftchi Baku17 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 46%
- at Sabah FA25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Qabala31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 52%
- vs Turan7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.