11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Shabab vs Al Taawon Pro League prediction & result

Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: Khalid Al-Ahmari
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Al Shabab 3-0 Al Taawon.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al Shabab, 27% draw, 35% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Shabab at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shabab99%Draw1%Al Taawon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Abdullah Matuq
18'
•Ali Al-Bulaihi
30'
Ali Al-Bulaihi
33'
🔁Roger Martínezout: Mamadou Thierno Barry
37'
Abdullah Matuq
43'
45+1'
Faris Al-Ghamdi
⚽Ricardo Mathias
45+6'
47'
•Abderrazak Hamdallah
49'
Marin Plamenov·Petkov
57'
🔁Nedim Bajramiout: Rakan Al Tulayhi
57'
🔁Parfait Guiagonout: Younes El Bahraoui
🔁Abdullah Matuqout: Abdullah Ahmed Musa Al Hawsawi
63'
🔁Sultan Al-Anziout: Dhari Sayyar Al Anazi
64'
66'
•Ashraf El Mahdioui
67'
Ashraf El Mahdioui
68'
🔁Ibrahim Mohannashiout: Mohammed Al Saedi
68'
🔁Faris Al-Ghamdiout: Abdulrahman Hendi
70'
Abderrazak Hamdallah
Yacine Adli
70'
78'
Zinéddine Belaïd
80'
🔁Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibiout: Mohammed Al-Aqel
⚽Yannick Carrascoassist: Ricardo Mathias
85'
🔁Ricardo Mathiasout: Awad Haidar Amer Al Nashri
88'
🔁Yacine Adliout: Ali Al-Asmari
88'

Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al Taawon

32%Possession68%
13Shots15
6On target3
1Corners4
2.42xG0.96

Goals against chances

Al Shabab3 from 2.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al Taawon0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shabab 4-4-2
  • 1M. DiawG
  • 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
  • 4T. JedvajD
  • 55Ali Al BulayhiD
  • 12S. Al AnziD
  • 37A. MatuqM
  • 8J. BrownhillM
  • 29Y. AdliM
  • 10Y. CarrascoM
  • 9Roger MartínezF
  • 49Ricardo MathiasF
Substitutes
  • 99Hamad Al-KhorayefF
  • 27Abdullah Al HawsawiD
  • 21Dhari Al AnaziD
  • 40Ali Al AsmariM
  • 33Mohammed Al MahasnehG
  • 6Awad Al NashriM
  • 2Mohammed Al ShwirekhD
  • 3M. BarryD
  • 97Mourad KhodariF
Coach: T. Letsch
Al Taawon 4-4-2
  • 1MailsonG
  • 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
  • 5Z. BelaïdD
  • 32Muteb Al MufarrijD
  • 88M. PetkovD
  • 7Mohammed Al KuwaykibiM
  • 16Faris Al GhamdiM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 8P. GuiagonM
  • 10N. BajramiF
  • 9A. Hamed AllahF
Substitutes
  • 17Mohammed Al AqelF
  • 70A. HendiM
  • 4Nasser Al HaleelD
  • 6Mohammed Bassam Al HurayjiD
  • 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
  • 45Mohammed Al SaediM
  • 93Awn Al SaluliD
  • 23Rakan Al TulayhiM
  • 47Y. El BahraouiF
Coach: Jehad Al-Hussain

Form going into Al Shabab vs Al Taawon

Al Shabab

Pro League

  • D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026

Al Taawon

All competitions we cover

  • L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al Shabab113532015+514
17Al Taawon12057620-145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon

  • 3 May 2026Al Shabab 1–5 Al TaawonPro League
  • 9 January 2026Al Taawon 2–0 Al ShababPro League
  • 22 February 2025Al Taawon 2–2 Al ShababPro League
  • 21 September 2024Al Shabab 1–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 18 May 2024Al Taawon 1–0 Al ShababPro League

Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al Taawon

Al Shabab

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Carrasco61

Al Taawon

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Shabab beat Al Taawon 3–0. The model had made a win for Al Shabab its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Abdullah Matuq 18' for Al Shabab, Ricardo Mathias 45+6' for Al Shabab, Yannick Carrasco 85' for Al Shabab. Sent off: Ali Al-Bulaihi (Al Shabab) 33'. On expected goals it finished 2.42–0.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Shabab a 31.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.2% after a win, 31.8% after a draw, 37.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.2%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For Al Taawon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.3% going in: 18.6% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Shabab v Al Taawon has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Al Shabab win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Al Taawon win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.