Al Shabab
vs
Al Taawon
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Shabab 2–1 Al Taawon
The model makes it 37% Al Shabab, 29% draw, 34% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.47, Al Taawon 1.39.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Al Shabab and Al Taawon are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shabab at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al Taawon
Al Shabab
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
- D3-3Al Riyadh25 August 2026
Al Taawon
- L0-6Al-Hilal12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hazm8 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Fateh5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr28 August 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha25 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Taawon failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al Shabab | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Shabab carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.46 for Al Taawon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Al Shabab and 1.39 for Al Taawon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shabab rate 0.65 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Taawon rate 0.63 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al Shabab against 1.39 for Al Taawon. Al Shabab's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.38 for Al Taawon.